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Analysis of Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Vehicle Capability in Damaged Composite Aircraft

机译：受损复合材料飞机飞行器能力不确定性量化技术分析

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摘要

Aerospace systems undergo a wide array of operating and environmental conditions that may lead to degradation of system components, and a reduction of the ability of the system to safely operate at the original design parameters. Designing for longevity results in inefficient early life cycle use, as the system must be overly safe in its pristine condition in order to be safe at the original design loads later. In this paper we compare methods for real-time capability estimation from a Bayesian perspective. Each method is demonstrated by estimating vehicle capability, which we define as maximum structural load on a damaged composite structure. In the linear case, we prove that filtering with any evolutionary model dominates the other approaches. In the nonlinear case, the comparison is not straightforward, and the best approach depends on the uncertainty of the evolutionary models, the measurement's, and the nonlinear structure of the problem. Empirical comparisons are performed using a simulated damaged airfoil panel model with a simple composite damage model.
机译：航空航天系统会经受各种各样的操作和环境条件，这可能会导致系统组件降级，并降低系统在原始设计参数下安全运行的能力。长寿的设计导致低效的早期生命周期使用，因为该系统在原始状态下必须过分安全，以便以后在原始设计负荷下保持安全。在本文中，我们从贝叶斯角度比较了用于实时能力估计的方法。估算车辆的能力证明了每种方法，我们将其定义为损坏的复合结构上的最大结构载荷。在线性情况下，我们证明了使用任何演化模型进行过滤都主导了其他方法。在非线性情况下，比较不是直接的，最好的方法取决于演化模型的不确定性，度量的不确定性和问题的非线性结构。使用模拟损坏的翼型板模型和简单的复合损伤模型进行经验比较。

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