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A framework to evaluate the environmental quality and simulate future scenarios of urban forests: atlantic forest case study

机译：评估环境质量并模拟城市森林未来情景的框架：大西洋森林案例研究

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The urban growth has several effects in the environment and society. To promote a rational development in cities, the maintenance of green infrastructure is primordial. In this study, we propose a framework to evaluated changes in the environmental quality of forest fragments using open-access satellite data. The environmental quality of forest fragments was obtained using landscape ecology analysis and the prediction of future scenarios by Markov Chain Analysis and Celular Automata. We demonstrate this framework using a location that comprises an environmental preservation area, the JundiaíMirim river basin, containing the remnants of Atlantic forest near the São Paulo state capital, southeast of Brazil. The results showed a constant trend of deterioration in the environmental quality of natural vegetation, attributed to the intense occupation process of urbanization in the watershed. The proposed methodology showed great potential to prevent the deterioration of urban forests, allowing the understanding of driving factors and disturbance dynamic in forest fragments. The locations of very low environmental quality proved to be the most vulnerable to the occupation process, highlighting the need of actions to preserve the Atlantic forest in Jundiaí-Mirim river basin.
机译：城市增长在环境和社会中有几种影响。为促进城市的理性发展，绿色基础设施的维护是原始的。在本研究中，我们提出了一种框架，可以使用开放式卫星数据评估森林片段环境质量的变化。利用景观生态分析和马尔可夫链分析和Celular自动机的未来情景预测获得了森林片段的环境质量。我们使用包括环境保护区，jundiadímirim河流域的位置展示了这一框架，其中包含巴西东南部的圣保罗州首都附近的大西洋森林的残余。结果表明，天然植被环境质量恶化的稳定趋势，归因于流域中城市化的强烈占领过程。拟议的方法表明，防止城市森林恶化的巨大潜力，从而了解森林碎片中的驾驶因素和扰动动态。非常低的环境质量的位置被证明是最容易受职业过程的群体，突出了保护廉越米利姆河流域大西洋森林的行动。

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