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首页> 外文会议>IAEE International Conference;International Association for Energy Economics >WHAT DRIVES CO_2 EMISSIONS FROM THE TRANSPORT SECTOR? A LINKAGE ANALYSIS
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WHAT DRIVES CO_2 EMISSIONS FROM THE TRANSPORT SECTOR? A LINKAGE ANALYSIS

机译：是什么推动了运输部门的CO_2排放？链接分析

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OverviewThe transportation sector contributes to a large share of the CO_2 emissions in China. However, with the exception ofdirect carbon emissions caused by energy consumption, the transportation sector also requires inputs produced byother sectors to satisfy its final demand and thus induces indirect carbon emissions which also cannot be ignored. Butmost of those previous literature only payed attention direction CO_2 emissions induced by direct energy consumptionin transportation sector and neglected the indirect CO_2 emissions from the intermediate purchases and sales betweentransportation sector and the rest of the economy. Thus it is necessary to take consideration on sectoral linkages oftransportation to identify its real influence on the carbon emissions of the whole economy.MethodsUsing data from input-output tables for 2002, 2007, and 2012, we applied the hypothetical extraction method (HEM)to reveal the characteristics of the backward and forward CO_2 emissions linkages between each transportation modalsub-sector (i.e. the rail, road, water, and air sub-sectors) and other economic sectors. HEM is a method used toanalyze sectoral linkages by first of all extracting hypothetically a sector from the economy. That is, the extractedsector cannot sell products to other sectors and also cannot purchase products from these other sectors. The sectorallinkages are then quantified by computing the output loss of the rest of the economy after the extraction. Theprinciple behind the hypothetical extraction method (HEM) for measuring CO_2 emissions linkages is to compare theCO_2 emissions of the whole economy with that of a hypothetical economy in which one or more target sectors areextracted. According to the method described by Duarte et al. (2002), the CO_2 emissions related to the target sectorscan be decomposed into four separate components, namely, internal emissions (IE), mixed emissions (ME), netbackward linkage emissions (NBLE), and net forward linkage emissions (NFLE). Here IE is the CO_2 emissionsrelated to the block Qs itself. The CO_2 emissions come from the intermediate goods produced, sold and purchasedinside the block Qs. ME is the CO_2 emissions in block Qs which are generated by the goods that sold from Qs to Q-sto form part of goods in Q-s and then repurchased by Qs from Q-s as intermediate inputs of Qs. NBLE is the net CO_2emissions released from goods imported from Q-s to satisfy the final demand of Qs, while NFLE is the net CO_2emissions released from goods exported from Qs to Q-s to satisfy the final demand of Q-s. In this study, Qsrepresents the transportation while Q-s represents other sectors in the economy.In order to analyze the resulting CO_2emissions linkages from the perspective of both total production and consumption, we define output emissions (OE)and demand emissions (DE) as follows: OE=IE+ME+NFE and DE=IE+ME+NBE.ResultsFirst, from the input-output relationship of transportation sector we know that the indirect CO_2 emissions intensitiesall exceeded the direct CO_2 emissions intensities in different transportation modal sub-sectors, representing morethan 60 % of total (direct + indirect) emissions intensities as shown in Fig. 1. For the whole transportation sector, itsreal carbon impact on the whole economy during intermediate trade is far more than its direct carbon emissions fromenergy consumption. Meanwhile, the transportation sector has a large push effect on the economy’s carbon emissionsby providing transport service to other sectors.Third, between 2002-2012, the OE and DE of road sector all increased and in 2012 they were far more than othertransport sub-sectors, which indicates road sector is principal CO_2 emitter in the transportation sector. While forwater sector, the OE and DE all decreased between 2007 and 2012 due in large part to the 2008 global financialcrisis, which significantly affected international shipping. For rail sector, the OE and DE in 2007 and 2012 alldecreased compared with those in 2002, which likely a result of technological development and energy structureadjustment. The development of high-speed rail These technological changes led to energy structure changes, from coal-fired dominated to diesel-fired dominated and then electricity dominated energy feedstocks. Futhermore, theNFLE and NBLE has the largest share in OE and DE resperctively. It show that the transportation sector has a closerelationship with other sectors in the economy, and for the CO_2 emissions reduction of the whole economy thesesectoral CO_2 emissions linkages should be considered when considering policy options. Finally, according to the net transfer emissions (NTE) of each transportation sub-sector, rail and road transportationare CO_2 emissions exporters. During 2002-2012 the water transport sub-sector changed from a CO_2 emissionsexporter to importer. Its final demand is the main factor that influences its CO_2 emissions. In contrast, the airtransport sub-sector changed from a CO_2 emissions importer to exporter, with an increase in the use of energyindustry resources. As a high-carbon sector, the transportation sector mainly transfers CO_2 emissions to downstreamsectors such as service and construction industries through the supply chain of the whole economy, meanwhiletransportation sector imported large CO_2 emissions from energy producing industry.ConclusionsPolicy implications of how to reduce carbon emissions of the whole economy from the perspective of transportationsector can be derived from the above results as following. As carbon exporters, road, rail, and air transport sectorsdischarge CO_2 emissions to the economy, that is their net forward linkage emissions are higher than their netbackward linkage emissions. Therefore, to reduce energy consumption and carbon intensity of these sectors is ofparamount importance to achieve carbon reduction of the whole economy.Different from the above three transport sectors, water transport sector is a carbon importer. To satisfy the finaldemand from water transport sector, the indirect CO_2 emission produced in the production process of its intermediateinputs should be attracted more attention. Improving input-output efficiency and reducing the dependence on carbonintensiveintermediate input are useful measures for water transport sector to control embodied CO_2 emissions. It isworth noting that the water transport sector imported large CO_2 emissions form energy industry particularly oilprocessing industry. Hence, solving the energy problem is also important in water transport sector.In summary, improving energy efficiency and developing alternative fuels are effective ways to promote low carbondevelopment in transportation sector. These measures mitigate not only the direct carbon emissions produced byenergy consumption of transportation sector, but also the indirect carbon emissions produced in the other sector (e.g.energy producing sectors). To achieve carbon reduction of the whole economy, it is more important to pay attentionto the CO_2 emissions linkages and to be more cautious about carbon leakage between industrial sectors. For example,the rail sector could use more clean electricity in high-speed railway to avoid increasing CO_2 emissions in electricpower sector.
机译：概述 运输部门在中国的CO_2排放中占很大比重。但是，除了 由能源消耗引起的直接碳排放，运输部门也需要 其他部门以满足其最终需求，从而导致间接碳排放，这也是不容忽视的。但 先前的大多数文献中，仅关注由直接能量消耗引起的CO_2排放的方向 在运输部门，忽略了中间购买和销售之间的间接CO_2排放 交通运输部门和其他经济部门。因此，有必要考虑到以下方面的部门联系： 交通运输，以确定其对整个经济的碳排放的真正影响。 方法 利用2002、2007和2012年投入产出表中的数据，我们应用了假设提取方法（HEM） 揭示每种运输方式之间向后和向前的CO_2排放联系的特征 分部门（即铁路，公路，水和航空分部门）和其他经济部门。 HEM是一种用于 首先通过假设从经济中提取一个部门来分析部门联系。也就是说，提取 部门不能向其他部门销售产品，也不能从其他部门购买产品。部门的 然后，通过计算提取后其余经济体的产出损失来量化各环节之间的联系。这 用于测量CO_2排放联系的假设提取方法（HEM）背后的原理是比较 整个经济体与一个或多个目标部门在其中的假设经济体的CO_​​2排放量 提取。根据Duarte等人描述的方法。 （2002年），与目标行业有关的CO_2排放量 可以分解为四个独立的部分，即内部排放（IE），混合排放（ME），净值 后向链接排放（NBLE）和净前向链接排放（NFLE）。 IE是CO_2的排放量 与块Qs本身有关。 CO_2排放来自生产，出售和购买的中间商品 Qs块内。 ME是从Qs到Qs出售的商品产生的Qs块中的CO_2排放量 形成Q-s中的一部分商品，然后由Qs从Q-s中回购，作为Qs的中间输入。 NBLE是净CO_2 从Q-s进口的货物释放的排放量满足Qs的最终需求，而NFLE是净CO_2 从Qs到Q-s出口的货物释放的排放量，以满足Q-s的最终需求。在这项研究中 代表交通运输，而Q-s代表经济中的其他部门。为了分析由此产生的CO_2 从总生产和消费的角度看，排放之间的联系，我们定义了产出排放（OE） 和需求排放（DE）如下：OE = IE + ME + NFE和DE = IE + ME + NBE。 结果 首先，从运输部门的投入产出关系中我们知道间接的CO_2排放强度 所有这些都超过了不同运输方式子行业的直接CO_2排放强度，代表了更多 超过总排放强度（直接+间接）排放强度的60％，如图1所示。对于整个运输部门， 中间贸易期间，实际碳对整个经济的影响远不止其直接排放产生的碳。 能源消耗。同时，运输部门对经济的碳排放有很大的推动作用 通过向其他部门提供运输服务。 第三，2002-2012年间，道路部门的OE和DE均增加，2012年远远超过其他国家 运输子行业，这表明道路部门是运输部门的主要CO_2排放者。当为 自2007年至2012年，水行业，OE和DE均下降，这在很大程度上是由于2008年全球金融 危机，严重影响了国际航运。对于铁路部门，2007年和2012年的OE和DE都 与2002年相比有所下降，这很可能是技术发展和能源结构的结果 调整。高铁的发展这些技术变革导致能源结构发生了变化，从以燃煤为主到以柴油为主，再到以电力为主的能源原料。此外， NFLE和NBLE分别在OE和DE中占有最大份额。表明交通运输业已经关闭 与经济中其他部门的关系，以及整个经济中的CO_2减排 在考虑政策选择时，应考虑部门CO_2排放的联系。最后，根据每个运输子行业的净转移排放量（NTE），铁路和公路运输 是CO_2排放出口国。在2002年至2012年期间，水运输子行业的二氧化碳排放量有所变化 出口商到进口商。它的最终需求是影响其CO_2排放的主要因素。相比之下，空气 运输子行业从CO_2排放的进口商变为出口商，能源的使用有所增加 行业资源。作为高碳行业，运输行业主要将CO_2排放量转移到下游 同时，整个经济的供应链中的服务业和建筑业等部门 运输部门从能源生产行业进口了大量的CO_2排放量。 结论 从运输角度看如何减少整个经济的碳排放的政策含义 可以从上述结果得出扇区。作为碳出口国，公路，铁路和航空运输部门 向经济排放CO_2排放，即其前向联系净排放量高于其净排放量 向后链接排放。因此，减少这些部门的能源消耗和碳强度是 对于实现整个经济的碳减排至关重要。 与上述三个运输部门不同，水运输部门是碳进口国。为了满足最终 水运部门的需求，其中间产品生产过程中产生的间接CO_2排放 投入应引起更多关注。提高投入产出效率并减少对碳密集型的依赖 中间投入是水运部门控制具体CO_2排放的有用措施。它是 值得注意的是，水务运输部门从能源行业尤其是石油行业中进口了大量的CO_2排放量 加工业。因此，解决能源问题在水运部门也很重要。 总之，提高能源效率和开发替代燃料是促进低碳发展的有效途径 交通运输业的发展。这些措施不仅减轻了由制造商产生的直接碳排放。 交通部门的能源消耗，以及其他部门产生的间接碳排放（例如 能源生产部门）。要实现整个经济的减碳，更重要的是要注意 与CO_2排放的联系，并更加注意工业部门之间的碳泄漏。例如， 铁路部门可以在高速铁路中使用更多的清洁电力，以避免增加电力中的CO_2排放 电力部门。

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