• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文会议>IAEE International Conference;International Association for Energy Economics >Cost estimates and economics of nuclear power plant newbuild: Literature survey and some modelling analysis
【24h】

Cost estimates and economics of nuclear power plant newbuild: Literature survey and some modelling analysis

机译：核电站新建造价估算和经济学：文献调查和一些建模分析

获取原文
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

OverviewThe perspectives of nuclear power deployment in the long-term depend very much on the development of costs,in relation to other low-carbon options, and the economics of investments into new capacities. Currently, these perspectivesare discussed quite controversially, see the discussion between Lovering et al. (2016) and Koomey et al.(2017). While there is a consensus in the literature that nuclear power is not competitive under regular market economy,competitive conditions (Davis, 2012), at least two issues need to be considered going forward. First, the evolutionof future technologies (e.g., Generation Ⅲ+ and Generation Ⅳ reactors). Second, the treatment of “costs” in other,non-market institutional contexts, such as indigenous suppliers or “home suppliers” (Thomas, 2010) or the new –subsidized - export models of countries like China (Thomas, 2017) or Russia (Hirschhausen, 2017). The objective ofthis paper is to provide insights into the economics of nuclear power for electricity generation.MethodsWe focus on the perspective of a (private or public) investor, and thus leave aside the public policy perspective,such as externalities, cost-benefit analysis, proliferation issues, etc. Instead, we apply a conventional economic perspective,such as proposed by Rothwell (2016), to decompose the costs into different technical components, to takeinto account the institutional context (capital costs, etc.), and to estimate values that are not readily available, or needto be aggregated, such as the costs for decommissioning at the end of a plant’s lifetime, and long-term waste storage.In a first step, a brief recap on the private economics of nuclear power is given. The different approaches to breakdown the costs and the differentiation between the concepts of “overnight costs” and “levelized costs of electricity”are introduced. We decompose the costs into different technical components or systems with different input and outputvariables, e.g. the balance-of-the-plant, the cooling system, or the nuclear steam supply system. The next sectionsummarizes the state of the scientific literature, as well as the grey literature that has not undergone peer review. Whilethe literature on the costs of nuclear power is vast, especially on the issue of construction costs for the major nuclearcountries U.S. and France, topics to which much less attention has been paid to are the issues of decommissioning andlong-term radioactive waste management and storage. We then present an update of our own cost estimates, lay outthe critical parameters, and perform some Monte Carlo and sensitivity analyses.Preliminary ResultsBased on the analysis of the levelized cost for electricity generation by Davis (2012), where the total cost ofelectricity production includes construction costs, fuel costs, and operations and maintenance over the lifetime of thepower plant, resulting in an average value of electricity generation costs. Davis concludes, that under the then-currentcircumstances, nuclear power is not competitive compared to natural gas- and coal-fueled electricity generation. Thiskind of analysis has been conducted in 2016 by DIW Berlin, using a similar methodology, but in a European context,and taking the 2016 boundary conditions into account. The calculation shows, that nuclear power remains uncompetitive,even when the CO_2-price is set to 100€/t CO_2 (See Table 1).The breakdown of a nuclear power plant into different systems lets us identify some system costs, which are moresensible to future increases. For example, there is currently worldwide only one single supplier for reactor pressurevessels for boiling water reactors – this also applies for the newer generations of reactors. This kind of analysis isinformative to predict cost estimates of newbuild projects.ConclusionWe confirm the consensus of the literature that, even under very optimistic assumptions about critical parameters,nuclear power is far from being competitive. Current newbuild projects are still subsidizied (see Hinkley Point C) orthe construction is financed by low-interest loans, e.g. by the Russian or Chinese state. Comparing the generation costsof nuclear power to the costs of coal and natural gas, even with a CO_2-price of 100€/t, there is no profitable investmentto be expected where nuclear becomes competitive.
机译：概述 长期部署核电的观点在很大程度上取决于成本的发展， 与其他低碳选择以及新能力投资的经济性有关。目前，这些观点 讨论颇具争议，请参阅Lovering等人之间的讨论。 （2016）和Koomey等人。 （2017）。尽管文献中一致认为核电在常规市场经济下不具有竞争力， 竞争条件（戴维斯，2012年），至少需要考虑两个问题。一，演变 未来技术（例如Ⅲ+和Ⅳ代反应堆）。第二，其他方面的“成本”的处理， 非市场机构环境，例如本地供应商或“房屋供应商”（托马斯，2010年）或新的– 补贴-中国（Thomas，2017）或俄罗斯（Hirschhausen，2017）等国家的出口模型。目的 本文旨在提供有关发电核能经济学的见解。 方法 我们专注于（私人或公共）投资者的观点，因此抛开了公共政策的观点， 例如外部性，成本效益分析，扩散问题等。相反，我们采用传统的经济观点， 如Rothwell（2016）提出的，将成本分解为不同的技术组成部分， 考虑到机构环境（资本成本等），并估算不易获得或需要的价值 进行汇总，例如工厂使用寿命结束时的退役成本和长期废物存储。 第一步，简要回顾了核电的私人经济学。突破的不同方法 降低成本以及“隔夜成本”和“平均电费”概念之间的区别 介绍。我们将成本分解为具有不同投入和产出的不同技术组件或系统 变量，例如工厂平衡，冷却系统或核蒸汽供应系统。下一节 总结了科学文献以及尚未经过同行评审的灰色文献的状态。尽管 有关核电成本的文献很多，尤其是有关主要核电建设成本的文献。 国家（美国和法国），退役和 长期放射性废物管理和存储。然后，我们提出自己的费用估算的最新信息，进行布局 关键参数，并进行一些蒙特卡洛和灵敏度分析。 初步结果 根据戴维斯（2012）的平均发电成本分析，其中 电力生产包括建筑成本，燃料成本以及整个生命周期内的运营和维护 发电厂，产生的平均发电成本价值。戴维斯得出的结论是，在当时的情况下 在这种情况下，与天然气和燃煤发电相比，核电没有竞争力。这 DIW Berlin于2016年使用类似的方法进行了这种分析，但在欧洲范围内， 并考虑了2016年的边界条件。计算表明，核电仍然没有竞争力， 即使将CO_2价格设置为100€/ t CO_2（请参见表1）。 将核电厂分解为不同的系统可以让我们确定一些系统成本，这些成本更多 对未来的增长明智。例如，目前全球范围内只有一个供应商提供反应堆压力 沸水反应堆的容器–这也适用于新一代反应堆。这种分析是 提供信息，以预测新建项目的成本估算。 结论 我们确认了文献的共识，即使在关于关键参数的非常乐观的假设下， 核电远非具有竞争力。当前的新建项目仍在补贴中（请参阅Hinkley Point C）或 该建筑的融资来源为低息贷款，例如由俄罗斯或中国政府提供。比较发电成本 核电相对于煤炭和天然气的成本，即使CO_2价格为100欧元/吨，也没有可盈利的投资 可以期待核能在竞争中脱颖而出。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号