As the interest in rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems has increased in Thailand, it is necessary to have a method offorecasting rooftop PV penetration on the basis of market conditions in order to inform relevant stakeholders whowish to accommodate PV into the electricity grid effectively. The proposed method forecasts annual PV penetrationin Thailand from 2018 to 2036 by using the payback period as the main input. The payback period is, then, used toaddress the maximum market share in 2036. Next, annual PV penetration is estimated by the Bass Diffusion Model.A case study of residential rooftop PV in Bangkok was conducted using this proposed method. If the annual PVcost reduction is 4% and the buyback rate average equals the average wholesale rate, the cumulative residentialrooftop PV penetration in Bangkok at the end of the latest Alternative Energy Development Plan (2015–2036)would be 4,232 MW and the maximum annual PV penetration would be 452 MW in the year 2032.
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