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首页> 外文会议>ECEEE summer study on energy efficiency first: The foundation of a low-carbon society >Is it so bad? Energy consumption and changes in stocks of energy-converting artefacts
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Is it so bad? Energy consumption and changes in stocks of energy-converting artefacts

机译：真的好不好吗能源消耗和能源转换物品库存的变化

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The development of total energy consumption is important ina world with limited resources. It is the result of two basic tendenciesworking in opposite directions: growth in use (suchas more cars) and improvements in energy efficiency (suchas more fuel-efficient engines). Since the 1970s energy consumptionhas stagnated in Sweden. This means that increasingsupply has been counteracted by measures improving overallenergy efficiency to a larger degree than before. How can longtermdevelopment in energy consumption be analysed?This paper proposes a change-of-stock model as a tool forsuch analyses. In order to show the fruitfulness of this approach,historical data on cars, dwellings and lamps in Swedenare used. The basic idea is that changes in composition, sizeand use of stocks of these energy converters explain energyconsumption. Gains in efficiency can be reached in two ways,either through changing technological path (such as electriccars instead of petrol-driven cars) or improvements within thepath taken (such as fuel-efficient combustion engines). As theexistence of path dependence is assumed here, it is expectedthat the latter will dominate. But does that mean small gainsin energy saved?Results from the cases in this paper show considerable gainsof efficiency in fuel consumption in private cars, and heatingefficiency in multi-dwelling houses. Thus, incremental changesare important, but are partially offset by changes in characteristicsof the artefacts. Radical changes, such as the factualchange from air to rail transportation, and a counterfactualdouble switch from gasoline to electric cars and from electricheating to district heating, as well as probable gains from thephase-out of incandescent lamps, show even bigger gains. Bothincremental and radical changes are the subject of counteractingtendencies, of a broader nature than that associated withrebound effects, such as more cars per inhabitant and fewerpeople in each dwelling.The approach seems to promise a way to analyse energy efficiencythat captures both promoting and counteracting factorsat both the micro and macro level.
机译：总能源消耗的发展对 资源有限的世界。这是两种基本趋势的结果 相反的方向：使用量的增长（例如 随着更多的汽车）和能源效率的提高（例如 作为更省油的发动机）。自1970年代以来的能源消耗 在瑞典停滞不前。这意味着增加 总体改善措施抵消了供应 能源效率比以前更大。怎么能长期 能源消耗的发展有待分析吗？ 本文提出了一种库存变化模型作为一种工具 这样的分析。为了显示这种方法的成果， 瑞典的汽车，住宅和灯具的历史数据 被使用。基本思想是成分，大小的变化 这些能源转换器的库存和使用说明了能源 消耗。可以通过两种方式获得效率方面的收益： 通过改变技术路线（例如电 汽车而不是汽油驱动的汽车）或 采取的路径（例如省油的内燃机）。作为 假设存在路径依赖，这是可以预期的 后者将占主导地位。但这是否意味着小收益 节省能源？ 本文案例的结果显示了可观的收益 私家车的燃料消耗效率和供暖 多层住宅的效率。因此，增量变化 固然重要，但被特征变化部分抵消 的人工制品。激进的变化，例如事实 从航空改为铁路运输，反事实 从汽油到电动汽车和从电动的双重转换 供热到区域供热，以及从 白炽灯的淘汰显示出更大的收益。两个都 渐进变化和根本变化是应对的主题 趋势，其性质比与 反弹效应，例如每个居民拥有更多汽车而更少 每个住宅中的人。 该方法似乎有望提供一种分析能源效率的方法 包含促进因素和抵消因素 在微观和宏观两个层面上。

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