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A combination approach to forecast the spare parts faults of shipboard aircraft

机译：预测船上飞机备件故障的组合方法

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摘要

Aiming at the problems that the Chinese Navy still needs experienced support, less staffing, and lack of intelligent decision-making methods to predict the failure of carrier-based aircraft spare parts, this paper proposed a combination forecast method, the adopted direct forecast methods include the univariate linear regression, the once exponential smoothing, the quadratic exponential smoothing and the cubic exponential smoothing, used squared sum error to evaluate the forecasting accuracy of different models. The sample shows that the combination forecast method has higher forecast accuracy than the direct forecast methods, with the characteristics of automatic optimization and elimination of adverse factors, and it can play an important role in improving the work efficiency of aircraft spare parts support department.
机译：针对中国海军仍然需要经验丰富的支持，较少的人员配置，缺乏智能决策方法来预测载体的飞机备件失败，本文提出了采用的直接预测方法的组合预测方法。单变量线性回归，一旦指数平滑，二次指数平滑和立方指数平滑，使用平方和错误来评估不同模型的预测精度。该样本表明，组合预测方法具有比直接预测方法更高的预测精度，具有自动优化和消除不利因素的特点，它可以在提高飞机备件支持部门的工作效率方面发挥重要作用。

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