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Lessons from Simple Stock and Flow Models

机译:简单库存和流量模型的课程

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One of the most difficult tasks system dynamicists have is presenting the key concepts of system dynamics to senior decision makers quickly. The paper presents three, very small, stock and flow models that were developed quickly and used in presentations to senior managers of New York State government agencies to show them the potential power of developing formal models to address key issues. The first model shows senior managers how their view of a program's performance could be inaccurate, and offers an alternative explanation that was not obvious prior to model development. The second model shows how a successful policy would appear to fail when measured using system stocks. The third model provides an example of how a small stock and flow model was used to obtain the confidence of an expert advisory group unfamiliar with the system dynamics methodology. These small models represent the beginning of what the authors hope is a growing number of small formal models that can be used to identify insights that highlight the power of system dynamics for those working in the public sector.
机译:动态人士最困难的任务之一是快速向高级决策者提出系统动态的关键概念。本文提出了三个,非常小,库存和流量模型,以纽约州政府机构的高级管理人员迅速开发,用于介绍,以向他们展示发展正式模型以解决关键问题的潜在力量。第一款模型显示了高级管理人员他们对程序的表现的看法可能是不准确的,并提供替代解释,在模型开发之前并不明显。第二种模型显示使用系统股票测量时,如何成功的策略如何失败。第三种模型提供了一个少量库存和流量模型的示例,用于获得对系统动态方法的非熟悉的专家咨询小组的信心。这些小型模型代表了作者希望是越来越多的小型正式模型的开头,可以用于确定突出突出系统动态的洞察力为公共部门工作的人的能力。

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