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The Application of Influence Diagrams for the Development of Military Experiments

机译:影响图对军事实验发展的应用

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The use of qualitative, diagrammatic, modelling is a growing trend in system dynamics with a well-developed literature, designed to deal with problems with a multitude of 'soft' variables, strong influences from human actors, and profound effects from political forces. An application area is the design of defence experiments to assess the effects of contemplated military investments on the ability to meet national goals. The difficulty lies in the design of experiments to test the system under a range of reasonably realistic, but sufficiently different, contexts to provide a comprehensive understanding of the issues. The paper will describe a hypothetical instance of tensions between nations and develop an influence diagram that inter-relates the political factors with the military factors. Study of the feedback loops connecting the political and military factors show how distinctly different experiments can be designed to test the totality of national crisis management capabilities.
机译:使用定性,图解的建模是系统动态的发展趋势,具有发达的文献,旨在应对众多“软”变量的问题,从人类学家的强烈影响,政治力量的深刻影响。一个应用领域是防御实验的设计,以评估预期的军事投资对满足国家目标的能力的影响。难度在于设计实验,以测试系统在一系列合理逼真的范围内,但足够不同,背景下提供全面了解这些问题。本文将描述各国之间紧张局势的假设实例,并制定影响与军事因素相互关联的政治因素的影响图。研究连接政治和军事因素的反馈循环展示了如何旨在旨在测试国家危机管理能力的全部实验。

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