Reliability analysis was performed on the settlement performance of the first stage construction of KIA (Kansai International Airport). The analysis is based on the settlement measurements that are taken over the nine years period starting from the end of 1993, and also based on the soil investigation results for the Upper-Most Pleistocene Clay (Ma 12). Based on the analysis, a possible range of future settlements, in probabilistic terms, of both the total and of the Ma12 stratum over the next 50 years is given. Also given is an evaluation on the performance of PTB (Passenger Terminal Building) of KIA that was made by examining the maintenance records of the differential settlement adjustments of its foundations. In essence, the main objective of this paper is to present a quantitative analysis based on the probabilistic approach on the ambiguities of obtained settlement data and soil testing data. Therefore the prediction presented in this paper belongs to the Type B prediction as proposed by Lambe.
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