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首页> 外文会议>Annual Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists Conference >THE AUSTRALIAN SUGARCANE SMUT EPIDEMIC: EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS AND PREDICTIONS FOR THE FINAL STAGES
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THE AUSTRALIAN SUGARCANE SMUT EPIDEMIC: EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS AND PREDICTIONS FOR THE FINAL STAGES

机译：澳大利亚甘蔗片污染疫情：流行病学考虑和最终阶段的预测

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A smut epidemic probably began in Australian east coast sugarcane production areas as early as 2003, but was recognised for the first time in 2006. There has been a very strong industry response to the disease with emphasis on developing management options, and a focus on high-yielding resistant varieties. The rates of disease spread and within-crop escalation of the disease have been examined; this paper reports on epidemiological considerations for this major epidemic for the coming few years. Natural-spread trials in the Mackay area have shown that highly susceptible varieties are infested very quickly; infestation of some less susceptible varieties has been slower and this may reduce, in part, direct yield losses caused by the disease. Monitoring of disease levels in susceptible crops has highlighted that some susceptible varieties succumb very quickly to smut while others exhibit more limited infestations, at least initially. Yield loss estimates have been made for the Herbert and confirm thatsugarcane smut can cause major losses; it also suggests very significant crop losses will occur in the 2010, 2011 and, perhaps, 2012 seasons. Predictions are for the epidemic to peak in the first-affected districts (Herbert, Mackay and Bundaberg) in 2010 and 2011 while the disease should become a relatively minor influence on commercial crop yields after 2012. Critical years for the industry are therefore likely to be 2010 and 2011.
机译：澳大利亚东海岸甘蔗生产区可能始于2003年，但2006年首次认可，这是一项澳大利亚东海岸的甘蔗生产区。对该疾病的重点产生了非常强大的行业反应，重点是发展管理选择，并重点关注高位 - 抗抗性品种。已经研究过疾病的疾病蔓延和疾病内部升级的速度;本文报告了这几年这一重大疫情的流行病学考虑。 Mackay地区的自然传播试验表明，高易感品种很快被侵染;对一些易感品种的侵染较慢，这部分可能减少由疾病引起的直接产量损失。监测易感作物中的疾病水平突出显示，一些易感品种易于迅速待粉刷，而其他品种则至少最初表现出更多有限的侵扰。为赫伯特制定了屈服损失估计，并确认昆腾的粉碎会导致重大损失;它还表明，2010年，2011年，也许是2012年季节，造成非常重要的作物损失。预测是2010年和2010年和2011年的第一个受影响的地区（Herbert，Mackay和Bundaberg）的疫情，而该疾病应在2012年后对商业作物产量的影响相对较小。因此，该行业的批评岁月可能是2010年和2011年。

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