One of the basic building blocks for success of any risk management program is a solid understanding of the uncertainties associated with the analysis. Some of the primary reasons why Risk Management Programs, especially Risk Based Inspection (RBI), fall short in realization of benefits is a lack of this understanding and how risk modeling and selected risk targets or thresholds dictate the level of acceptable uncertainty. People (expertise = knowledge + experience), work processes and technology are all important aspects of a credible and effective program. Consistency and adherence to a set of inspection effectiveness confidence level rules, examples or guidelines are important in the RBI process for managing uncertainty, as are other options to manage risk drivers, especially those associated with probability of failure. As Bayesian logic is used in the API RP 581 RBI [3] technology and process, a thorough explanation of the sensitivities and importance of realistic and consistent application of rating inspection effectiveness is critical to accomplish a credible, effective and sustainable RBI program. All RBI practices in the process industries are based on relative risk. As a result, if we lose consistency the risk rankings are of little practical good. This paper will focus on demonstrating value in the RBI process via effective management of uncertainties, how to achieve this credibly and consistently, and the role of inspection in understanding, measuring, mitigating and managing the impact of uncertainties on risk. The references used are the latest editions of API RPs 580 (Risk Based Inspection) [2], API RP 581 (Risk Based Inspection Technology) [3] and API 579-1/ASME FFS-1, Fitness-For-Service standard [4] as examples of recognized and generally accepted practices.
展开▼
机译：任何风险管理计划成功的基本基石之一是对与分析相关的不确定性有坚实的理解。风险管理计划，尤其是基于风险的检查（RBI）未能实现效益的一些主要原因是缺乏这种理解，以及风险建模和选定的风险目标或阈值如何决定可接受的不确定性水平。人员（专业知识=知识+经验）、工作流程和技术都是可信和有效项目的重要方面。在RBI过程中，一致性和遵守一套检验有效性置信水平规则、示例或指南对于管理不确定性非常重要，管理风险驱动因素的其他选项也很重要，尤其是与故障概率相关的选项。由于API RP 581 RBI[3]技术和流程中使用了贝叶斯逻辑，因此，全面解释评级检查有效性的实际和一致应用的敏感性和重要性，对于实现可信、有效和可持续的RBI计划至关重要。流程工业中的所有RBI实践都基于相对风险。因此，如果我们失去一致性，风险排名就没有什么实际意义。本文将重点展示通过有效管理不确定性在RBI过程中的价值，如何可靠且一致地实现这一点，以及检查在理解、测量、减轻和管理不确定性对风险的影响方面的作用。所使用的参考文献是API RPs 580（基于风险的检验）[2]、API RP 581（基于风险的检验技术）[3]和API 579-1/ASME FFS-1《服务适用性标准》[4]的最新版本，作为公认和普遍接受实践的示例。
展开▼
