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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling Prediction and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation >From Cyber Space Opinion Leaders and the Diffusion of Anti-vaccine Extremism to Physical Space Disease Outbreaks
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From Cyber Space Opinion Leaders and the Diffusion of Anti-vaccine Extremism to Physical Space Disease Outbreaks

机译：从网络空间意见领导者和抗疫苗极端主义扩散到物理空间疾病爆发

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摘要

Measles is one of the leading causes of death among young children. In many developed countries with high measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine coverage, measles outbreaks still happen each year. Previous research has demonstrated that what underlies the paradox of high vaccination coverage and measles outbreaks is the ineffectiveness of "herd immunity", which has the false assumption that people are mixing randomly and there's equal distribution of vaccinatedpopulation. In reality, the unvaccinated population is often clustered instead of not equally distributed. Meanwhile, the Internet has been one of the dominant information sources to gain vaccination knowledge and thus has also been the locus of the "anti-vaccine movement". In this paper, we propose an agent-based model that explores sentiment diffusion and how this process creates anti-vaccination opinion clusters that leads to larger scale disease outbreaks. The model separates cyber space (where information diffuses) and physical space (where both information diffuses and diseases transmit). The results show that cyber space anti-vaccine opinion leaders have such an influence on anti-vaccine sentiments diffusion in the information network that even if the model starts with the majority of the population being pro-vaccine, the degree of disease outbreaks increases significantly.
机译：麻疹是死亡的幼儿中最主要的原因之一。在许多发达国家高麻疹，腮腺炎和风疹（MMR）疫苗接种率，麻疹疫情仍然每年发生。以前的研究已经证明，什么underlies高接种率和麻疹爆发的矛盾是“群体免疫”，里面有一个错误的假设人是随机混合和有vaccinatedpopulation的平均分配无效。在现实中，未接种疫苗人口往往聚集，而不是分布并不均匀。与此同时，互联网已经成为占主导地位的信息来源获取知识接种疫苗之一，因此也得到了“反疫苗运动”的轨迹。在本文中，我们提出了探索情绪扩散的基于代理的模式，这个过程是如何产生的抗疫苗接种意见集群，导致更大规模疾病爆发。该模型中隔离网络空间（其中信息扩散）和物理空间（其中两个信息扩散和疾病发送）。结果表明，网络空间的反疫苗意见领袖拥有的信息网络中的抗疫苗情绪扩散等的影响，即使与大多数人是亲疫苗的模型开始，疾病暴发显著的程度增加。

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