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首页> 外文会议>Society of Petroleum Engineers Latin American and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference >The Real-Options Approach to Analyze Sequential Investments in Oil and Gas Projects: An Application to Heavy-Oil Production Projects
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The Real-Options Approach to Analyze Sequential Investments in Oil and Gas Projects: An Application to Heavy-Oil Production Projects

机译：分析石油和天然气项目顺序投资的真实选择方法：重油生产项目的应用

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摘要

The largest remaining reserves of heavy oil can be considered an important energy source for future supply. This means that heavy oil is a strategic resource for the future of energy industry. In order to produce these resources, a petroleum company has to invest from exploration to decommissioning, over a time-period that may reach several years. The problem faced by managers is the correct valuation of sequential investment opportunities whose result will be known only many years ahead. The traditional method for valuation and decision-making is to compute the expected value of the mapped future scenarios with the help of a decision-tree, but its main drawback is that the correct discount rate is hard to estimate because it changes continuously over the nodes of the tree. In this paper, we use the option-pricing approach, noting that after the success of seismic exploration, management has the option to invest in appraisal whose exercise price is the cost of wildcat wells. After the success of appraisal, management has the option to invest in development and production. We apply the proposed model to the analysis of investment in a typical petroleum integrated project. We find different results and conclusions from those of the traditional NPV: 1) Increase in the volatility will increase the value of flexibility to adapt the project to new environment; 2) The strategy of carrying out the project in phases can contribute to increase its value; 3) Even if the expected NPV is negative in some stages, the project is still valuable because of the possibility of increase in value of present value of cash flows in the future.
机译：重油最大的剩余储量可以被视为未来供应的重要能源。这意味着重油是能源行业未来的战略资源。为了生产这些资源，石油公司必须在可能达到几年的时间段内从勘探到退役。经理面临的问题是对顺序投资机会的正确估值，其结果将在未来几年内已知。估值和决策的传统方法是在决策树的帮助下计算映射的未来情景的预期值，但其主要缺点是正确的折扣率难以估计，因为它在节点上连续变化树。在本文中，我们使用选项定价方法，并指出在地震勘探成功后，管理层可以选择投资评估，其行使价格是野猫井的成本。在评估成功后，管理层可以选择投资开发和生产。我们将拟议模型应用于典型石油综合项目投资分析。我们发现传统NPV的结果和结论：1）波动性的增加将增加灵活性，以使项目适应新环境; 2）执行项目中项目的策略可以有助于增加其价值; 3）即使在某些阶段中预期的NPV是负的负数，该项目仍然有价值，因为未来现金流量的价值增加的可能性。

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