Exploring the impacts of the interactions between lifecycles and other dynamics that influence the development of technology-based industries

机译：探讨生命周期与其他影响科技产业发展的其他动态之间的互动的影响

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To address future uncertainty within strategy and innovation, managers extrapolate past patterns and trends into the future. Several disciplines make use of lifecycles, often with a linear sequence of identified phases, to make predictions and address likely uncertainties. Often the aggregation of several cycles is then interpreted as a new cycle - such as product lifecycles into an industry lifecycle. However, frequently different lifecycle terms - technology, product, industry - are used interchangeably and without clear definition. Within the interdisciplinary context of technology management, this juxtaposition of dynamics can create confusion, rather than clarification. This paper explores some typical dynamics associated with technology-based industries, using illustrative examples from the automotive industry. A wide range of dimensions are seen to influence the path of a technology-based industry, and stakeholders need to consider the likely causality and synchronicity of these. Some curves can simply present the aggregation of components; other dynamics incur time lags, rather than being superimposed, but still have a significant impact. To optimise alignment of the important dimensions within any development, and for future strategy decisions, understanding these interactions will be critical.

机译：为了解决战略和创新内的未来不确定性，管理人员将过去的模式和趋势推向未来。几个学科利用生命周期，通常具有确定的阶段的线性序列，使预测和解决可能的不确定性。然后，几个周期的聚集然后被解释为新的循环 - 例如产品生命周期进入行业生命周期。但是，经常不同的生命周期术语 - 技术，产品，行业 - 用于互换使用，而无明确的定义。在技术管理的跨学科背景下，这种动态的并置可以产生混淆，而不是澄清。本文探讨了与技术的行业相关的一些典型动态，使用汽车行业的说明性例子。看到广泛的尺寸是影响基于技术的行业的路径，利益相关者需要考虑这些可能的因果关系和它们的同步性。一些曲线可以简单地介绍组件的聚合;其他动态造成时间滞后，而不是叠加，但仍然产生重大影响。优化任何发展中重要方面的对齐，以及未来的策略决策，了解这些互动将是至关重要的。

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《Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering Technology》|2011年||共15页
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Routley Michele; Phaal Robert; Probert David;
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Exploring the impacts of the interactions between lifecycles and other dynamics that influence the development of technology-based industries

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