Researches on the Method of Bayesian Models Selections and Averages

机译：贝叶斯模型选择方法和平均值的研究

获取原文

页面导航

摘要
著录项
相似文献
相关主题

摘要

For improving the analyses results of Bayesian model selections and averages, by which the uncertainties and risks of analyses results of natural disasters can be reduced or removed, two important problems about Bayes Factors computation, i.e. determination of parameters' prior distribution and numerical integration of models, are mainly discussed and resolved firstly, then a new method of Bayes Factors computation has been proposed, finally the accuracy and effectiveness of this new method have been confirmed and compared with BIC by Monte-Carlo tests. Results show that the new method is more effective and reliable than BIC, since it can overcome the influence of many unfavorable factors by analyzing and describing the uncertainties of model's parameters.

机译：用于改进贝叶斯模型选择和平均值的分析，通过这种情况，可以减少或消除分析的分析结果的不确定性和风险，这两个重要问题是关于贝叶斯因子计算的两个重要问题，即确定参数的现有分布和模型的数值集成，主要讨论和首先解决，然后提出了一种新的贝叶斯因子计算方法，最后已经确认了这种新方法的准确性和有效性并通过Monte-Carlo试验进行了比较。结果表明，新方法比BIC更有效可靠，因为它可以通过分析和描述模型参数的不确定性来克服许多不利因素的影响。

著录项

来源
《International conference on risk analysis and crisis response》|2009年||共6页
会议地点
作者

展开▼
作者单位

展开▼
会议组织
原文格式 PDF
正文语种
中图分类风险评价;
关键词
Natural disasters; Bayes Factor; Bayesian models selections and averages; Hydrologic frequency model;

机译：自然灾害;贝叶斯因子;贝叶斯模型选择和平均值;水文频率模型;

相似文献

外文文献
中文文献
专利

1. Evaluating explanatory models of the spatial pattern of surface climate trends using model selection and bayesian averaging methods [J] . Ross McKitrick, Lise Tole Climate dynamics . 2012,第12期

机译：使用模型选择和贝叶斯平均方法评估地表气候趋势空间模式的解释性模型
2. Comparison of Bayesian model averaging and stepwise methods for model selection in logistic regression. [J] . Wang D, Zhang W, Bakhai A Statistics in medicine . 2004,第22期

机译：Logistic回归中贝叶斯模型平均和逐步选择模型的比较。
3. Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Bayesian Model Updating, Model Class Selection, and Model Averaging [J] . Jianye Ching, Yi-Chu Chen Journal of Engineering Mechanics . 2007,第7期

机译：贝叶斯模型更新，模型类别选择和模型平均的过渡马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法
4. Researches on the Method of Bayesian Models Selections and Averages [C] . Yah-Fang Sang, Dong Wang, Ji-Chun Wu The 2nd International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response(第二届风险分析与危机反应国际学术研讨会) . 2009

机译：贝叶斯模型选择和均值方法的研究
5. Bayesian model averaging and variable selection in multivariate ecological models. [D] . Lipkovich, Ilya A. 2002

机译：多元生态模型中的贝叶斯模型平均和变量选择。
6. Uncertainty in Propensity Score Estimation: Bayesian Methods for Variable Selection and Model Averaged Causal Effects [O] . Corwin Matthew Zigler, Francesca Dominici -1

机译：倾向评分估计的不确定性：变量选择和模型平均因果效应的贝叶斯方法
7. Comparison of Two Gas Selection Methodologies: An Application of Bayesian Model Averaging [O] . Renholds, Andrea S., Thompson, Sandra E., Anderson, Kevin K., 2006

机译：两种气体选择方法的比较：贝叶斯模型平均的应用
8. Comparison of Two Gas Selection Methodologies: An Application of Bayesian Model Averaging [R] . Reynolds, A. S., Thompson, S. E., Anderson, K. K., 2006

机译：两种气体选择方法的比较：贝叶斯模型平均的应用

Researches on the Method of Bayesian Models Selections and Averages

摘要

著录项

相似文献

相关主题

期刊订阅