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Application of Generalized Neuron in Electricity Price Forecasting

机译:广义神经元在电价预测中的应用

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With recent deregulation in electricity industry, price forecasting has become the basis for this competitive market. The precision of this forecasting is essential in bidding strategies. So far, the artificial neural networks which can find an accurate relation between the historical data and the price have been used for this purpose. One major problem is that, they usually need a large number of training data and neurons either for complex function approximation and data fitting or classification and pattern recognition. As a result, the network topology has a significant impact on the network computational time and ability to learn and also to generate unseen data from training data. To overcome these problems, a new structure using generalized neurons (GN) is adapted in this paper. The proposed structure needs a smaller data set for training. So this property of GN can be very useful for price forecasting. The data such as historical prices are not available enough for most markets. The significance, viability and efficiency of the proposed approach, in electricity price forecasting, are shown using Ontario market data points and various GN models are compared.
机译:随着电力行业的放松管制,价格预测已成为这一竞争市场的基础。该预测的精确度对于竞标策略至关重要。到目前为止,人工神经网络可以在历史数据与价格之间找到准确的关系,已用于此目的。一个主要问题是,他们通常需要大量训练数据和神经元,用于复杂函数近似和数据拟合或分类和模式识别。因此,网络拓扑对网络计算时间和学习的能力产生了重大影响,并且还可以从训练数据生成未见数据。为了克服这些问题,本文适用于使用广义神经元(GN)的新结构。所提出的结构需要较小的数据集进行培训。因此,GN的这种财产对于价格预测非常有用。历史价格等数据对于大多数市场而言不够。使用Ontario市场数据点和各种GN模型显示了所提出的方法的重要性,生存能力和效率,以电价预测显示。

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