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The Quantitative Evaluation on the Direct Economic Loss Induced by Tropical Cyclones

机译：热带气旋诱导的直接经济损失的定量评价

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摘要

The evaluation model of the direct economic loss induced by tropical cyclones make landfall over China is discussed. With the observations of tropical cyclones and the socio-economic statistical data during the period from 2004 to 2008, three elements - the disaster causes, the bearing capacity and the prevention capacity are taken into account to the model which is used by multiple regression methods. The results show that (1) it is reasonable to use those three predictors to build the assessment model, (2) the obtained model can provide a good forecast of the direct economic loss, and (3) this model has a potential value in operation.
机译：讨论了热带气旋诱导的直接经济损失评价模型，讨论了中国的登陆。在2004年至2008年期间的热带旋风和社会经济统计数据的观察中，三个要素 - 灾害原因，承载力和预防能力被考虑到多元回归方法使用的模型。结果表明（1）使用这三个预测因子来构建评估模型是合理的，（2）所获得的模型可以提供良好的直接经济损失预测，（3）该模型具有潜在的运作价值。

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