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Solving stochastic epidemiological models using computer algebra

机译:使用计算机代数解决随机流行病学模型

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Mathematical modeling in Epidemiology is an important tool to understand the ways under which the diseases are transmitted and controlled. The mathematical modeling can be implemented via deterministic or stochastic models. Deterministic models are based on short systems of non-linear ordinary differential equations and the stochastic models are based on very large systems of linear differential equations. Deterministic models admit complete, rigorous and automatic analysis of stability both local and global from which is possible to derive the algebraic expressions for the basic reproductive number and the corresponding epidemic thresholds using computer algebra software. Stochastic models are more difficult to treat and the analysis of their properties requires complicated considerations in statistical mathematics. In this work we propose to use computer algebra software with the aim to solve epidemic stochastic models such as the SIR model and the carrier-borne model. Specifically we use Maple to solve these stochastic models in the case of small groups and we obtain results that do not appear in standard textbooks or in the books updated on stochastic models in epidemiology. From our results we derive expressions which coincide with those obtained in the classical texts using advanced procedures in mathematical statistics. Our algorithms can be extended for other stochastic models in epidemiology and this shows the power of computer algebra software not only for analysis of deterministic models but also for the analysis of stochastic models. We also perform numerical simulations with our algebraic results and we made estimations for the basic parameters as the basic reproductive rate and the stochastic threshold theorem. We claim that our algorithms and results are important tools to control the diseases in a globalized world.
机译:在流行病学数学建模是了解在其下的疾病被发送和控制的方法的一个重要工具。数学建模可以通过确定性或随机模型来实现。确定性模型是基于非线性微分方程和随机模型的短期系统是基于线性微分方程的非常大的系统。确定性模型承认稳定局部和全局从中可以得出的基本再生数的代数表达式,并利用计算机代数软件对应的流行阈值的完整,严谨和自动分析。随机模型更加难以治疗及其属性的分析需要在统计数学复杂的考虑。在这项工作中,我们建议使用计算机代数软件,目的是解决流行病随机模型,如SIR模型和舰载型号。具体来说,我们使用枫木解决小团体的情况下,这些随机模型,我们得到的是没有出现在标准教科书或更新流行病学随机模型的书籍结果。从我们的研究结果,我们推导出与使用数理统计先进的程序典籍得到的一致表达。我们的算法不仅可以用于确定性模型的分析,也是随机模型的分析,可以延长流行病学其他随机模型,这表明计算机代数软件的强大功能。我们还进行数值模拟与我们的代数结果和我们提出的基本参数为基本繁殖率和随机的阈值定理估计。我们要求我们的算法和结果是控制疾病在全球化的世界的重要工具。

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