• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文会议>International training workshop on regional climate change and its impact assessment >Future cereal production in China: The interaction of climate change,water availability and socio-economic scenarios
【24h】

Future cereal production in China: The interaction of climate change,water availability and socio-economic scenarios

机译：中国未来的谷物生产：气候变化的互动，水资源可用性和社会经济情况

获取原文
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Food production in China is a fundamental component of the national economy and driver of agricultural policy. Sustaining and increasing output to meet growing demand faces significant challenges including climate change, increasing population, agricultural land loss and competing demands for water. Recent warming in China is projected to accelerate by climate models with associated changes in precipitation and frequency of extreme events. How changes in cereal production and water availability due to climate change will interact with other socioeconomic pressures is poorly understood. By linking crop and water simulation models and two scenarios of climate (derived from the Regional Climate Model PRECIS) and socio-economic change (downscaled from IPCC SRES A2 and B2) we demonstrate that by the 2040s the absolute effects of climate change are relatively modest. The interactive effects of other drivers are negative, leading to decreases in total production of -18% (A2) and -9% (B2). Outcomes are highly dependent on climate scenario, socio-economic development pathway and the effects of CO2 fertilization on crop yields which may almost totally offset the decreases in production. We find that water availability plays a significant limiting role on future cereal production, due to the combined effects of higher crop water requirements (due to climate change) and increasing demand for non-agricultural use of water (due to socio-economic development). Without adaptation, per capita cereal production falls in all cases, by up to 40% of the current baseline. By simulating the effects of three adaptation scenarios we show that for these future scenarios China is able to maintain per capita cereal production, given reasonable assumptions about policies on land and water management and progress in agricultural technology. Our results are optimistic because PRECIS simulates much wetter conditions than a multi-model average, the CO2 crop yield response function is highly uncertain and the effects of extreme events on crop growth and water availability are likely to be underestimated.
机译：中国粮食生产是国民经济和农业政策司机的基本组成部分。维持和增加产出以满足日益增长的需求面临着具有气候变化，增加人口，农业土地损失和水的竞争需求的重大挑战。最近在中国的变暖被预计通过气候模型加速了与极端事件的降水和频率的相关变化。由于气候变化导致的谷物生产和水可用性的变化将与其他社会经济压力互动较差。通过将作物和水模拟模型及其气候（来自区域气候模型的两种情况进行了两种情况，以及来自IPCC SRES A2和B2的社会经济变革（从IPCC SRES A2和B2级），我们证明了20世纪40年代气候变化的绝对影响是相对谦虚的。其他司机的互动效果是阴性的，导致总产量的-18％（A2）和-9％（B2）降低。结果高度依赖于气候情景，社会经济发展途径和二氧化碳施肥对作物产量的影响，这几乎完全抵消了生产的减少。由于较高的作物用水要求（由于气候变化，由于社会经济发展，越来越多的情况（由于社会经济发展，越来越多），我们发现水资源可用性在未来的谷物生产中对未来谷物生产作出了重大限制的作用。无需适应，人均谷物产量在所有情况下都落下，最高可达目前基线的40％。通过模拟三种适应情景的效果，我们认为，对于这些未来的情景，中国能够维持人均谷物生产，鉴于土地和水资源管理的政策和农业技术进步的合理假设。我们的结果是乐观的，因为PRECIS模拟了多型平均水平的湿度条件，CO2作物产量响应函数非常不确定，极端事件对作物生长和水可用性的影响很可能被低估。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号