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Meta-Modeling Evaluation of the 2017 Petroleum Industry Fiscal Reform Terms on Deep Offshore Assets in Nigeria

机译：尼日利亚深层近海资产的2017年石油行业财政改革条款的荟萃建模评价

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摘要

Deep offshore hydrocarbon resource development in Nigeria is of great economic interest due to security challenges limiting direct investment flow to onshore petroleum assets.However,Petroleum fiscal systems,which basically describe the relationship between host government and International oil companies(IOCs),are paramount in the deep offshore investment decision process.This paper focuses on assessing the implications on deep offshore asset development economics under the 1993 Production Sharing Contract(PSC)terms in comparison to the fiscal terms in the 2017 petroleum industry fiscal policy reform report.A metamodeling framework is proposed and applied in this paper.The framework adopted involves the development of deterministic cash flow models for both the 1993 PSC and the 2017 proposed fiscal terms.A range of profitability indicators for economic evaluation is generated and Monte Carlo simulation using @Risk software is applied to account for risks and uncertainties.The results reveal that the 2017 fiscal terms appear to be favorable to the contractor based on selected profitability indicators.In addition,there is strong evidence to suggest that the dual tax system proposed in the 2017 fiscal policy is economically attractive to the contractor when compared to the single tax system in the 1993 PSC.Hence,deep offshore E&P development is expected to be more rewarding to contractor under the 2017 draft fiscal policy terms than the 1993 PSC terms,ceteris paribus.
机译：由于安全挑战限制直接投资流向陆上石油资产的安全挑战，尼日利亚的深层近海烃资源开发具有巨大的经济利益。但是，石油财政系统基本上描述了东道国政府和国际石油公司（IOC）之间的关系，这是至关重要的深度海上投资决策过程。本文重点介绍，根据2017年石油行业财政政策改革报告的财政条款相比，评估1993年生产分享合同（PSC）条款下对深层近海资产开发经济学的影响。Metomodeling框架是本文提出和应用。采用的框架涉及为1993年PSC和2017年拟议的财政条款开发确定性现金流模型。将生成经济评估的盈利能力指标范围，并应用使用@RISK软件的Monte Carlo仿真考虑风险和不确定性。结果r削弱2017财政术语似乎有利于基于所选盈利指标的承包商。此外，有强有力的证据表明2017财政政策中提出的双重税制在与单一相比时对承包商具有经济吸引力税收制度在1993年的PSC.HENCE，深度海上E＆P开发预计将在2017年财政政策条款草案下的承包商比1993年的PSC条款，CETERIS PARIBUS更加有益。

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