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Scientific and practical tools for dealing with water resource estimations for the future

机译：用于处理未来水资源估算的科学和实用工具

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Future flow regimes will be different to today and imperfect knowledge of present and future climate variations, rainfall-runoff processes and anthropogenic impacts make them highly uncertain. Future water resources decisions will rely on practical and appropriate simulation tools that are sensitive to changes, can assimilate different types of change information and flexible enough to accommodate improvements in understanding of change. They need to include representations of uncertainty and generate information appropriate for uncertain decision-making. This paper presents some examples of the tools that have been developed to address these issues in the southern Africa region. The examples include uncertainty in present day simulations due to lack of understanding and data, using climate change projection data from multiple climate models and future catchment responses due to both climate and development effects. The conclusions are that the tools and models are largely available and what we need is more reliable forcing and model evlaution information as well as methods of making decisions with such inevitably uncertain information.
机译：未来的流动制度将与今天不同，对现在和未来的气候变化的不完美了解，降雨 - 径流过程和人为影响使它们非常不确定。未来的水资源决策将依赖于对变化敏感的实用和适当的仿真工具，可以吸收不同类型的变化信息，并且足够灵活，以适应变革的理解改善。他们需要包括不确定性的陈述并产生适合不确定决策的信息。本文介绍了已制定的工具的一些示例，以解决南部非洲地区的这些问题。这些例子包括由于缺乏理解和数据而在当今模拟中的不确定性，由于气候和发展效应，利用来自多种气候模型和未来的集水响应的气候变化预测数据。结论是，工具和模型主要可用，我们需要的是更可靠的强制和模型进化信息，以及制定决策的方法，这是不可避免的不确定信息。

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