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首页> 外文会议>International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly >The need of the change of the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes under extreme conditions - taking reference evapotranspiration as an example
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The need of the change of the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes under extreme conditions - taking reference evapotranspiration as an example

机译：需要在极端条件下改变水文过程的概念化 - 以参考蒸散为例

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What a hydrological model displays is the relationships between the output and input in daily, monthly, yearly and other temporal scales. In the case of climate change or other environment changes, the input of the hydrological model may show a gradual or abrupt change. There have been numerous documented studies to explore the response of output of the hydrological models to the change of the input with scenario simulation. Most of the studies assumed that the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes will remain, which may be true for the gradual change of the input. However, under extreme conditions the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes may be completely changed. Taking an example of the Allen's formula to calculate crop reference evapotranspiration (ETo) as a simple hydrological model, we analyze the alternation of the extreme in ETo from 1955 to 2012 at the Chongling Experimental Station located in Hebei Province, China. The relationships between ETo and the meteorological factors for the average values, minimum (maximum) values at daily, monthly and annual scales are revealed. It is found the extreme of the output can follow the extreme of the input better when their relationship is more linear. For non-liner relationship, the extreme of the input cannot at all be reflected from the extreme of the output. Relatively, extreme event at daily scale is harder to be shown than that at monthly scale. The result implicates that a routine model may not be able to catch the response to extreme events and it is even more so as we extrapolate models to higher temperature/C02 conditions in the future. Some possible choices for the improvements are suggested for predicting hydrological extremes.
机译：水文模型显示是日常，每月，每年和其他时间尺度的输出和输入之间的关系。在气候变化或其他环境变化的情况下，水文模型的输入可能显示出逐渐或突然的变化。已经有许多文件研究，探讨了水文模型输出对具有场景模拟的输入的变化的响应。大多数研究假设水文过程的概念化将保留，这可能是对输入的逐步变化的真实。然而，在极端条件下，水文过程的概念化可以完全改变。以艾伦公式为例计算作物参考蒸发（ETO）作为一个简单的水文模型，我们在河北省龙陵实验站的1955年至2012年分析了ETO的极端的交替。 eTO与气象因素之间的关系，揭示了每日，每月和年度尺度的最小值，最小（最大）值。当他们的关系更为线性时，它发现输出的极端可以更好地遵循输入的极端。对于非衬垫关系，输入的极端根本不能从输出的极端反射。相对而言，日常比例的极端事件更难显示，比每月比例更难以显示。结果含义涉及日常模型可能无法捕获对极端事件的响应，并且在将来将模型推断到更高的温度/ C02条件。建议预测水文极端的一些可能选择。

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