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The application of several gray models in prediction of electricity consumption in rural areas

机译：几种灰色模型在农村电力消费预测中的应用

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In recent years, with the sustained and rapid development of economy and a huge demand for energy consumption in rural areas, the electricity's supply can not meet the requirements of rural electricity consumption development, and turns into a bottleneck to economic development in rural areas. It became particularly important that the author took a research of electricity consumption in rural areas and then established a predicted model of regional electricity consumption in rural areas. Based on the electricity consumption data of rural areas from 2000 to 2009, several gray models were used to forecast electricity consumption in rural areas of our country and the forecasting results were compared and analyzed. The results showed that the GM (1,1) model, which based on buffer operator, was suitable to do a long-term forecast of electricity consumption in rural areas, and the author predicted the next 6 years of electricity consumption in rural areas. At last, the author put forwards the adjust and control measures based on the forecasting results.
机译：近年来，随着经济的持续快速发展和农村能源消耗需求巨大的需求，电力供应不能符合农村电力消费发展的要求，并转变为农村经济发展的瓶颈。作者们对农村地区的电力消耗进行了尤为重要，然后在农村地区建立了一个预测的区域电力消费模式。根据2000年至2009年农村地区的电力消费数据，采用几种灰色模型预测我国农村地区的电力消耗，并进行了预测结果和分析。结果表明，基于缓冲器运营商的GM（1,1）模型适合于农村地区的电力消费预测，提交人预测了农村地区的未来6年的电力消费。最后，提交人根据预测结果提出了调整和控制措施。

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