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UNCERTAINTY IN ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT Report of the Working Group on Uncertainty Analysis

机译：不确定性分析工作组的环境风险评估不确定性报告

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摘要

Judgements about whether a specific set of human actions will or will not result in adverse impacts on the environment involve varying degrees of uncertainty depending on the scope and complexity of problem and the environmental processes involved. Risk analysis is a systematic process for identifying the probability or likelihood for an adverse event or condition. However, estimating the probability of event "x" to be 20% is not itself a statement about the degree of confidence or uncertainty associated with that estimate (e.g., 20%+-5%). Uncertainty analysis represents a collection of qualitative and quantitative methods that are applied to assign a measure of confidence in risk estimates produced during human health or ecological risk assessments. The purpose of this working group was to reach conclusions about the need for uncertainty analysis in environmental assessment and management and to make recommendations to guide its application.
机译：关于一组特定的人类行为是否会对环境造成不利影响的判断取决于问题的范围和复杂程度以及所涉及的环境过程，其不确定性程度不同。风险分析是用于识别不良事件或状况的可能性或可​​能性的系统过程。但是，将事件“ x”的概率估计为20％本身并不能说明与该估计值相关的置信度或不确定性（例如20％+-5％）。不确定性分析代表了定性和定量方法的集合，这些方法用于对人类健康或生态风险评估过程中产生的风险估计值分配信心度量。该工作组的目的是就环境评估和管理中不确定性分析的必要性得出结论，并提出指导其应用的建议。

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