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A System Dynamics Strategic Planning Model For A Municipal Water Supply Scheme

机译：一种用于市政供水计划的系统动态战略规划模式

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摘要

This paper reports the development of a System Dynamics model for the Strategic planning of a municipal water supply scheme. The model is capable of handling the critical variables that impact on the operations of a water supply scheme. The model was developed using the Dynamo programming software to handle the process dynamics. Other supporting software - Fortran, Clipper 5, and Epiglue are used to handle data input, analysis and presentation of results in a user-friendly environment. The model was validated by applying it to the simulation of the University of Ibadan Water Supply Scheme for which extensive data of operations were collected over a period of ten years. The results obtained were found to be realistic and useful for the planning of plant operations. It is concluded that the model developed is sensitive to variable changes and has the capability of answering various operational 'what-if questions. As a strategic planning tool, the present model generates, for different scenarios, important operational information for the management of the water supply scheme. It is concluded that SD model is a useful tool to assist water mangers and policy makers in making decisions and evolving strategic planning for water-supply.
机译：本文报告了为市政供水计划战略规划的系统动态模型的开发。该模型能够处理影响供水方案的操作的临界变量。该模型是使用Dynamo编程软件开发的，以处理过程动态。其他支持软件 - FORTRAN，CLIPPER 5和EPIGLUE用于处理用户友好环境中的结果的数据输入，分析和呈现。该模型通过将其应用于IABADAN大学供水计划的模拟验证，为期十年来收集了广泛的运营数据。发现得到的结果是逼真的，可用于植物业务的规划。得出结论，该模型对可变变化敏感，具有回答各种操作的能力 - 如果问题。作为一个战略规划工具，本模型对于不同的场景，产生了用于管理供水方案的重要操作信息。结论是，SD模型是一种有用的工具，可以帮助水管理人员和决策者做出决策和不断发展的供水规划。

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