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The Influenza A(HlNl)v Pandemic:An Exploratory System Dynamics Approach

机译：流感A（HLNL）V流行：探索系统动态方法

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This paper presents a small exploratory System Dynamics model related to the dynamics of the 2009 flu pandemic, also known as the Mexican flu, swine flu, or A(HlNl)v. The model was developed in May 2009 in order to quickly foster understanding about the possible dynamics of this new flu variant and to perform rough-cut policy explorations. Later, the model was also used to further develop and illustrate the use of Exploratory System Dynamics models as scenario generators for Exploratory Modelling and Analysis. The paper starts with an introduction to, and a description of, the exploratory System Dynamics model, followed by a discussion of plausible behaviours, sensitivity, what-if and policy analyses. The model is subsequently used to illustrate the Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis approach: base case behaviours are discussed, followed by sensitivity, what-if and policy analyses. Finally some concluding remarks and policy recommendations are formulated.
机译：本文介绍了与2009年流感大流行病的动态相关的小探索系统动态模型，也称为墨西哥流感，猪流感或（HLNL）v。该模型于2009年5月开发，以便快速促进对这种新流感变异的可能性和进行粗加工政策探索的理解。后来，该模型也用于进一步发展，并说明探索系统动态模型作为用于探索性建模和分析的场景发电机的使用。纸张从介绍，探索系统动态模型的描述，然后讨论了合理的行为，灵敏度，IF和政策分析。随后使用该模型来说明探索系统动态建模和分析方法：讨论基本情况行为，然后是灵敏度，什么是策略分析。最后制定了一些结论备案和政策建议。

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