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Modeling a National Power Crisis in Support of a Crisis Lifecycle Model

机译：建模国家电力危机支持危机生命周期模型

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Society is dependent upon electricity. In the last decade international scale outages have occurred with unfortunate regularity. While the impact of these outages has been limited to a few hours or days, they have been expensive and prompted fears that more severe failures could occur. While crises are perceived as events, their true origins come from the pre-crisis and post-crisis phases, where preparations and learning set the stage for the successful management of unusual events. A power crisis of a few weeks duration can set the policy agenda for many years. In this paper we describe a crisis model that captures the dynamic state of a power grid, the effects of failure on clients, government, and the public. The model was developed in concert with and validated by a panel of crisis managers. These factors combine to determine the post-crisis policies and socio-political factors that influence policy over much longer timeframes.
机译：社会取决于电力。在过去十年中，国际规模中断发生了不幸的规律性。虽然这些中断的影响仅限于几个小时或几天，但它们一直昂贵，促使担心可能发生更严重的失败。虽然危机被视为事件，但他们的真实起源来自危机前和危机后阶段，其中准备和学习设定了成功管理不寻常事件的阶段。持续时间的电力危机可以设定多年的政策议程。在本文中，我们描述了一种危机模型，旨在捕获电网的动态状态，对客户，政府和公众的失败影响。该模型是由危机管理人员的音乐会和验证的音乐会开发的。这些因素结合在于确定影响政策的危机后的政策和社会政治因素，这些因素在更长的时间范围内影响政策。

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