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首页> 外文会议>Mexican International Conference on Artificial Intelligence >Estimating Probability of Failure of a Complex System Based on Inexact Information about Subsystems and Components, with Potential Applications to Aircraft Maintenance
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Estimating Probability of Failure of a Complex System Based on Inexact Information about Subsystems and Components, with Potential Applications to Aircraft Maintenance

机译：基于子系统和组件不精确信息的复杂系统失败概率，具有飞机维护的潜在应用

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In many real-life applications (e.g., in aircraft maintenance), we need to estimate the probability of failure of a complex system (such as an aircraft as a whole or one of its subsystems). Complex systems are usually built with redundancy allowing them to withstand the failure of a small number of components. In this paper, we assume that we know the structure of the system, and, as a result, for each possible set of failed components, we can tell whether this set will lead to a system failure. For each component A, we know the probability P(A) of its failure with some uncertainty: e.g., we know the lower and upper bounds P(A) and P(A) for this probability. Usually, it is assumed that failures of different components are independent events. Our objective is to use all this information to estimate the probability of failure of the entire the complex system. In this paper, we describe a new efficient method for such estimation based on Cauchy deviates.
机译：在许多现实生活中（例如，在飞机维护中），我们需要估计复杂系统（例如飞机作为其整体或其子系统之一）的失败的概率。复杂系统通常是用冗余构建的，允许它们能够承受少量组件的故障。在本文中，我们假设我们知道系统的结构，而且，对于每个可能的一组失败组件，我们可以判断此集是否会导致系统故障。对于每个组件A，我们知道其失败的概率P（a）与一些不确定性：例如，我们知道这种概率的下限和上限p（a）和p（a）。通常，假设不同组件的故障是独立的事件。我们的目标是使用所有这些信息来估计整个复杂系统失败的概率。在本文中，我们描述了基于Cauchy偏离的这种估计的新高效方法。

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