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Use of adaptive weighted echo state network ensemble for construction of prediction intervals and prediction reliability of silicon content in ironmaking process

机译:使用自适应加权回波状态网络集合来构建炼制过程中硅含量的预测间隔和预测可靠性

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The silicon content of molten iron is one of the most important molten iron quality parameters. However, the silicon content cannot be measured directly, therefore, accurate prediction for silicon content is of great significant to blast furnace (BF) iron making process. Aiming at the problem of low accuracy, an adaptive weighted echo state network (AW-ESN) based ensemble model is proposed in this paper to construct the prediction intervals (PI) and predict the silicon content of molten iron in BF. First, bootstrap method is utilized to resample the training set to construct subsets, AW-ESN is proposed to estimate silicon content and the corresponding PI is constructed. Then, the correspondence between the width of PI and reliability is established. Finally, the prediction results and the reliability can be obtained. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, industrial experiments were carried out by using process data of BF. The results demonstrate that the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy and the reliability can be realized, which provide more information to the on-site operators.
机译:铁水的硅含量是最重要的铁水质量参数之一。然而,硅含量不能直接测量,因此,对高炉(BF)铁制造工艺非常重要的对硅含量的精确预测具有重要意义。针对低精度的问题,在本文中提出了一种基于自适应加权回声状态网络(AW-ESN)的集合模型,以构建预测间隔(PI)并预测BF中铁水的硅含量。首先,利用引导方法将训练设置重新采样以构造子集,提出了AW-ESN来估计硅内容,并且构造相应的PI。然后,建立PI宽度与可靠性之间的对应关系。最后,可以获得预测结果和可靠性。为了验证所提出的方法的有效性,通过使用BF的过程数据进行工业实验。结果表明,所提出的方法具有更高的预测精度,并且可以实现可靠性,从而为现场操作员提供更多信息。

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