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首页> 外文会议>NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Assessment and Management of Environmental Risks: Methods and Applications in Eastern European and Developing Countries Oct 1-4, 2000, Lisbon, Portugal >HOW MUCH IS TOO MUCH? Thoughts About The Use Of Risk Assessment For Countries In Transition And The Developing World
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HOW MUCH IS TOO MUCH? Thoughts About The Use Of Risk Assessment For Countries In Transition And The Developing World

机译：多少是太多了？关于转型国家和发展中国家使用风险评估的思考

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Risk assessment has proven to be a valuable tool in setting U.S. environmental policy. However, its use in countries with weak regulatory institutions and fundamental environmental problems is questionable, unless consideration is given to the strength and competence of the country's regulatory institutions to carry out recommendations that derive from such analyses. The success of risk assessment as a tool for environmental decisionmaking in the United States has encouraged experts to recommend it for use in countries in transition and the developing world. With the end of the Cold War, the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia began to ask for help in solving their centuries of accumulated problems. It was hardly surprising that Americans would proffer their best tools. For example, the World Bank and the U.S. Agency for International Development use risk assessment and comparative risk assessment when setting priorities. Local experts are increasingly using these tools as well. The magnitude of environmental problems facing most of these countries, as well as the persistent weakness of their environmental institutions, leads us to question whether countries still at the level of very basic environmental policy choices are well served when they are encouraged to undertake sophisticated risk assessment procedures. Formal risk assessment, as practiced in the United States, features written descriptions of the risk-creating situation being analyzed, the assumptions and methods of analysis used to reach conclusions, any uncertainties regarding those conclusions, and recommendations for action based on the existing legal and regulatory structure. Based on a short review of why and when risk assessment is used in Western countries, as well as the environmental conditions in the countries in transition, we ask here whether full-blown risk assessment is the best way for countries with weak institutions and very basic problems to identify their priorities. We believe that sophisticated risk assessments are not useful in such contexts. They often recommend the wrong activities from a practical point of view, and often yield irrelevant results because they ignore institutional issues. In this sense, they represent a misplaced use of scarce resources. Much cruder methods will often do. If risk assessment is to be used, we believe an important part of the analysis should include a careful consideration of the capacity, ability, and will of these countries to accept the recommendations that derive from such analysis. Analyzing the strength and competence of a country's regulatory institutions is not normally a component of risk assessment practice in countries with weak regulatory regimes, but we think it should be.
机译：事实证明，风险评估是制定美国环境政策的宝贵工具。但是，除非在考虑该国监管机构执行从此类分析得出的建议的实力和能力的情况下，其在监管机构薄弱且存在基本环境问题的国家中的使用存在疑问。风险评估作为美国环境决策工具的成功，鼓励专家将其推荐给转型国家和发展中国家使用。冷战结束后，东欧和中亚国家开始寻求帮助，以解决其数百年来积累的问题。美国人会提供他们最好的工具也就不足为奇了。例如，世界银行和美国国际开发署在设定优先级时使用风险评估和比较风险评估。当地专家也越来越多地使用这些工具。这些国家中大多数国家所面临的环境问题的严重性及其环境机构的持续薄弱，使我们质疑，仍处于基本环境政策选择水平的国家在受到鼓励进行复杂的风险评估时是否得到了很好的服务程序。在美国，正式的风险评估以书面形式描述正在分析的风险创造情况，得出结论所用的假设和分析方法，关于这些结论的任何不确定性以及根据现有法律和法规提出的行动建议。监管结构。在简短回顾一下西方国家为何以及何时进行风险评估以及转型国家的环境条件的基础上，我们在此询问全面的风险评估是否是制度薄弱，基础很基本的国家的最佳方法确定他们的优先事项的问题。我们认为，复杂的风险评估在这种情况下没有用。他们经常从实践的角度推荐错误的活动，而且由于忽略了制度性问题，因此常常产生不相关的结果。从这个意义上讲，它们代表了对稀缺资源的错误使用。很多粗略的方法通常会这样做。如果要使用风险评估，我们认为分析的重要部分应包括仔细考虑这些国家接受这些分析得出的建议的能力，能力和意愿。在监管制度薄弱的国家，分析国家监管机构的实力和能力通常不是风险评估实践的组成部分，但我们认为应该这样做。

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