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首页> 外文会议>NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Environmental Challenges in the Mediterranean 2000-2050; 20021002-20021005; Madrid; ES >Climate change and the occurrence of extremes: some implications for the Mediterranean Basin
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Climate change and the occurrence of extremes: some implications for the Mediterranean Basin

机译：气候变化和极端事件的发生：对地中海盆地的一些影响

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摘要

Intuitively we would expect climate change associated with increased emissions of greenhouse gases (so-called global warming) to be linked to substantial impacts in the Mediterranean. This region is vulnerable to present-day fluctuations in the weather, especially with respect to water supply for competing activities such as agriculture and tourism. The climate models used in the Third Assessment Report of IPCC Working Group I indicate substantial drying in the Mediterranean associated with future climate change, which can only exacerbate the current situation. The potential impacts of climate change on the Mediterranean are described. We look first at the historical climate record, and the large-scale atmospheric characteristics, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, which are related to the fluctuations in that record. Then, we look at future patterns of change in the Mediterranean as predicted by climate models. We examine techniques for predicting climate changes at the local scale. Scenarios are presented of the future change in temperature and precipitation for selected Mediterranean catchments, and analysed with respect to changes in the occurrence of extremes, such as high rainfall events, droughts and heat waves.
机译：凭直觉，我们期望与温室气体排放增加相关的气候变化（所谓的全球变暖）与对地中海的重大影响有关。该地区容易受到当今天气波动的影响，特别是在农业和旅游业等竞争性活动的供水方面。 IPCC第一工作组第三次评估报告中使用的气候模型表明，与未来气候变化相关的地中海大量干旱，只会加剧当前的局势。描述了气候变化对地中海的潜在影响。我们首先看一下历史气候记录，以及与该记录波动相关的大规模大气特征，例如北大西洋涛动。然后，我们看看气候模型预测的地中海未来的变化模式。我们研究了预测当地气候变化的技术。介绍了一些地中海集水区未来温度和降水变化的情景，并就极端事件（例如高降雨事件，干旱和热浪）的发生变化进行了分析。

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