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首页> 外文会议>New advances in geotechnical engineering >FLOOD SIMULATION CONSIDERING PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND UNCERTAINTY OF SOIL PROPERTIES OF EARTH-FILL DAMS
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FLOOD SIMULATION CONSIDERING PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND UNCERTAINTY OF SOIL PROPERTIES OF EARTH-FILL DAMS

机译：考虑大雨概率和填土土质不确定性的洪水模拟

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Decrepit earth-fill dams ought to be improved in order to mitigate natural disasters.Since there is a recent demand for low-cost improvements,the development of a design method for optimum improvement work at a low cost is the final objective of this research.As a basic step,the risk to earth fills during heavy rains is evaluated here.The rainfall intensity and the variability of the numerous soil parameters of the earth-fills related to soil erosion are dealt with as probabilistic parameters.When the maximum overflow head on a spillway bed becomes greater than the design overflow head,overflow occurs.The peak overflow head,hp,is determined within 72 hours of the rainfall,and the various rainfall patterns are tested by the Monte Carlo method.Furthermore,the statistical values of the parameters for the soil erosion are assumed in this research,and the variability of the discharge hydrographs are derived from the values.The discharge hydrographs are applied for the flood simulation as input waves.The submerged area and the head of the flood discharge in the downstream area can be predicted.Finally,from the estimated probability of overflow,and the statistical values of the submerged area and the head of the flood discharge,the risk to the downstream area of the earth-fill dams can be evaluated.
机译：为了减少自然灾害，应该对衰落的土石坝进行改进。由于最近对低成本的改进有需求，因此开发一种低成本的最佳改进工作的设计方法是本研究的最终目标。作为基本步骤，这里评估了暴雨期间的土壤填充风险。将降雨强度和与土壤侵蚀相关的土壤填充的众多土壤参数的变化视为概率参数。溢洪道床变得大于设计的溢流头，就会发生溢流。在降雨后的72小时内确定了峰值溢流头hp，并通过蒙特卡罗方法测试了各种降雨模式。本研究假设了土壤侵蚀的参数，并根据这些值得出了排放水位图的可变性。最后，根据估计的溢流概率，以及淹没区域和洪水排放头的统计值，可以预测下游地区的洪水风险。可以评估土坝的下游区域。

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