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The future of heat pumps in Germany under forthcoming legislation

机译：根据即将颁布的法规，德国热泵的未来

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摘要

The German space heating sector is responsible for about 19% of Germanys CO_2 emissions and so the second largest emission source (behind electricity production). Moreover, the sector is still regarded as an area with high potential for reducing GHG at low – or even negative – costs. Politics is now trying to realize this potential by a law, which forces house owners to use 10-20% renewable energy such as solarthermal energy, wood or heat pumps for space heating. One federal state has already passed this law in November 2007 and the Federal Government is expected to pass such a law for the whole country in the current year. Moreover, high oil and gas prices also affect the heat market and favour the entry of alternative solutions. This paper tries to analyse the impacts of the new legislation and of rising prices for fossil fuels on the market for space heating until 2020. A focus is hereby set on heat pumps. The sales of those boomed in the last years reaching a market share of about 8% of the newly installed heatings in 2007 and are expected to grow further. Thus, it is very interesting to have a look on the future of heat pumps in Germany.
机译：德国的空间供暖部门约占德国CO_2排放量的19％，因此是第二大排放源（仅次于电力生产）。此外，该行业仍被认为是以低成本（甚至是负成本）降低温室气体排放潜力的领域。政治现在正试图通过一项法律来实现这一潜力，该法律迫使房主使用10％至20％的可再生能源，例如太阳能，木材或热泵进行空间供暖。一个联邦州已于2007年11月通过了这项法律，预计联邦政府将在今年通过整个国家的这项法律。此外，高昂的石油和天然气价格也影响着供热市场，并有利于替代解决方案的进入。本文试图分析新法规的影响以及化石燃料价格上涨对2020年之前空间供暖市场的影响。在此，重点是热泵。在过去几年中，这些产品的销售迅速增长，在2007年达到了新安装的供暖设备约8％的市场份额，并且有望进一步增长。因此，了解德国热泵的未来非常有趣。

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    Johannes HENKEL;

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    Berlin University of Technology Department of Energy Systems Einsteinufer 25 (TA8) D-10587 Berlin – Germany johannes.henkel@tu-berlin.de;

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