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An Economic Analysis on Tourist Industry of Zhoushan Islands

机译：舟山群岛旅游业的经济分析

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摘要

Zhoushan City is sole archipelagic sea-level city in China, which has a natural island, marine advantage, rich tourist resources. Its geographical units and landscaping are so unique that the island tourisM industry has been rapidly developed. The tourisM industry is able to pull the primary industry, link second industry and drive tertiary industries. Tourism industry is an important pillar industry and driving industry of Zhoushan, which plays an active role in and make great contributes to economic and social development in Zhoushan. The paper analyzes the impact of endogenous variables and external variables on the GDP of Zhoushan by using the path model analysis and puts forward the contribution of tourist industry to the regional economy. What's more, the paper predicts the future developing space of tourism of Zhoushan and the rapid-growing tendency of tourism revenue from now to 2020 through applying logistic function regression model.
机译：舟山市是中国唯一的群岛海平面城市，具有天然岛屿，海洋优势，丰富的旅游资源。它的地理单位和环境美化是如此独特，以致岛屿旅游业得到了迅速发展。旅游产业能够拉动第一产业，联系第二产业并带动第三产业。旅游业是舟山重要的支柱产业和带动产业，在舟山的经济社会发展中发挥着积极的作用，并做出了巨大的贡献。通过路径模型分析，分析了内生变量和外部变量对舟山GDP的影响，提出了旅游产业对区域经济的贡献。此外，本文通过运用逻辑函数回归模型预测了舟山旅游业的未来发展空间以及从现在到2020年旅游业收入的快速增长趋势。

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