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首页> 外文会议>Proceedings of the 2010 summer simulation multiconference book 1: Summer computer simulation conference 2010 >Stay at Home, Wash Your Hands: Epidemic Dynamics with Awareness of Infection
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Stay at Home, Wash Your Hands: Epidemic Dynamics with Awareness of Infection

机译：待在家里，洗手：具有感染意识的流行病动态

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This paper describes work in progress studying a cellular automata model of epidemic dynamics on a spatial network. We assume that susceptible individuals become aware of the presence of infection within their local neighborhood, and change their behavior so as to reduce the risk of becoming infected. Two controls are considered: reducing the number of contacts ("staying at home"), and reducing the likelihood that contact results in infection ("washing hands"). We consider how effective these controls are at reducing the final size of the epidemic and give some preliminary results obtained by running simulations on a spatial lattice. One result is that "washing hands" appears more effective for short-lived diseases while "staying at home" is better for diseases with a longer infectious period. Another result is that control seems to be most effective when the awareness neighbourhood is roughly the same size or larger than the contact neighbourhood. We also give a non-spatial mean field approximation and compare results from both models.
机译：本文介绍了在空间网络上研究流行病动力学的细胞自动机模型的工作。我们假设易感人群意识到他们附近社区中存在感染，并改变其行为以降低被感染的风险。考虑了两个控制措施：减少接触次数（“在家中”），以及减少接触导致感染的可能性（“洗手”）。我们考虑了这些控制措施在减少疫情最终规模方面的有效性，并给出了通过在空间网格上运行模拟所获得的一些初步结果。结果是，“洗手”对于短期疾病似乎更有效，而“待在家里”对于传染期较长的疾病则更好。另一个结果是，当意识邻域的大小大致等于或大于联系邻域时，控制似乎是最有效的。我们还给出了非空间平均场近似，并比较了两个模型的结果。

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