Project risk modeling and simulation based on DSM

机译：基于DSM的项目风险建模与仿真

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The design structure matrix method is used in risk estimate and control of project management An improved risk index model is proposed for schedule risk and cost risk by reason of rework iteration. The simulation model based on design structure matrix is applied to analyze single risk and combination risk in large-scale project On the condition of uncertain execute time and given optimal execute sequence of tasks, relation between cost and schedule is Weibull distribution. Random nature of rework iteration and learning effect are also taken into consideration during executing process. Simulation example proves that the risk index for project management is validity and dynamicity.

机译：设计结构矩阵法用于项目管理的风险评估和控制中。基于返工迭代，针对进度风险和成本风险提出了一种改进的风险指标模型。将基于设计结构矩阵的仿真模型应用于大型项目的单一风险和组合风险分析。在不确定执行时间，给定最优任务执行顺序的情况下，成本与进度之间的关系为威布尔分布。在执行过程中还要考虑返工迭代的随机性和学习效果。仿真算例表明，项目管理的风险指标具有有效性和动态性。

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来源
《The proceedings of the 2nd international conference on value engineering and value management (2009)》|2009年|p.251-257|共7页
会议地点 Beijing(CN);Beijing(CN)
作者
Xiao-long LIU; Bin DU; Dong-yu CHEN;
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作者单位

School of Economics Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;

School of Economics Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China School of Information Management,Jiang xi University of Finance Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;

School of Economics Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;

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会议组织
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类价值、价格;
关键词
design structure matrix; risk index; learning effect; rework; simulation;

机译：设计结构矩阵;风险指标;学习效果;返工;仿真;

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Project risk modeling and simulation based on DSM

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