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首页> 外文会议>Proceedings of the 34th IASTED International Conference on Modelling, Identification and Control >MODELLING RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY USING AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG MODELS
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MODELLING RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY USING AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG MODELS

机译：使用自回归分布式滞后模型对电力的住宅和商业需求建模

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摘要

Utilities, utility regulators and governments need detailed and timely information on energy demand to support planning and development of generation, transmission and distribution investments in a prudent, timely and cost effective manner, and information on price and income elasticities of demand is particularly important. Since electricity demand elasticity estimates vary significantly across jurisdictions, it is important to have jurisdiction-specific elasticity estimates. This study helps fill the gap for British Columbia by estimating sector electricity demand functions using autoregressive distributed lag econometric models. The study has three main conclusions. First, the estimated partial adjustment demand models have good statistical properties in the sense that explanatory power is high, the regression coefficients are statistically significant, and the level of autocorrelation is minimal. Second, electricity demand in British Columbia for the residential and commercial customer segments exhibits limited responsiveness to changes in electricity prices or natural gas prices but high responsiveness to the level of economic activity. Third, the own-price elasticity estimates for British Columbia are consistent with the most recent detailed regional level information available for the United States.
机译：公用事业，公用事业监管机构和政府需要详细，及时的能源需求信息，以谨慎，及时和具有成本效益的方式支持发电，输电和配电投资的规划和开发，而有关需求价格和收入弹性的信息尤为重要。由于不同地区之间的电力需求弹性估计值差异很大，因此具有特定于地区的弹性估计值很重要。这项研究通过使用自回归分布式滞后计量经济学模型估算部门的电力需求函数，帮助填补了不列颠哥伦比亚省的空白。该研究有三个主要结论。首先，从解释力高，回归系数具有统计学意义以及自相关水平最小的意义上来说，估计的部分调整需求模型具有良好的统计特性。其次，不列颠哥伦比亚省对住宅和商业客户群的电力需求表现出对电价或天然气价格变化的有限响应，但对经济活动水平的响应却很高。第三，不列颠哥伦比亚省的自身价格弹性估计与美国可获得的最新的详细区域级信息一致。

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