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首页> 外文会议>Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Intelligent Logistics Systems >Research on Medium-term Electric Load Forecasting Model Based on Elman Neural Network
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Research on Medium-term Electric Load Forecasting Model Based on Elman Neural Network

机译：基于埃尔曼神经网络的中期电力负荷预测模型研究

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摘要

The load of power system is influenced by many factors,and they are variable and nonlinear. The relation between them is dynamic. It is impossible to forecast the load of power system accurately by traditional methods. According to the Elman neural network having the performance of reflecting the dynamic vividly and directly,medium-term load forecasting model of power system based on Elman neural network is established,and some prediction is done. On one hand,the prediction accuracy of Elman neural network with one layer,the one with two layers and the one with three layers is compared,and the experiments show that the Elman neural network with two layers is of good dynamic,quickly convergence speed and high forecasting precision. On the other hand,the prediction accuracy of Elman neural network and BP neural network is compared,the results show that the performance of the above model with three Elman neural network is superior to BP neural network. It is proved that Elman neural network is a new and reliable method for predicting the load of power system,which has a good prospect of application.
机译：电力系统的负荷受多种因素的影响，它们是可变的和非线性的。它们之间的关系是动态的。用传统方法不可能准确地预测电力系统的负荷。针对Elman神经网络具有生动，直观地反映动态的性能，建立了基于Elman神经网络的电力系统中期负荷预测模型，并进行了一定的预测。一方面，比较了一层，两层和三层的Elman神经网络的预测精度，实验表明，两层的Elman神经网络具有良好的动态性，收敛速度快，收敛速度快。预测精度高。另一方面，对Elman神经网络和BP神经网络的预测精度进行了比较，结果表明，上述模型在三个Elman神经网络上的性能优于BP神经网络。实践证明，埃尔曼神经网络是一种预测电力系统负荷的可靠的新方法，具有很好的应用前景。

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  • 来源
  • 会议地点 Shanghai(CN);Shanghai(CN)
  • 作者

    L.H.Jin; rnX.Jiang; rnY.Yan; rnY.Z.Huo;

  • 作者单位

    Lina Ren@Key Laboratory of Digital Manu facturing Technology and Application,The Ministry of Education,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou 730050,China--Yanxin Liu@Lanzhou Cigarette Plant,Lanzhou 730050,China--Ruieheng Feng@Key Laboratory of Digital Manu facturing Technology and Application,The Ministry of Education,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou 730050,China--Zhiyuan Rui@Key Laboratory of Digital Manu facturing Technology and Application,The Ministry of Education,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou 730050,China--Haiyan Li@Key Laboratory of Digital Manu facturing Technology and Application,The Ministry of Education,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou 730050,China--;

  • 会议组织
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 物资流通;
  • 关键词

    Elman neural network; medium-term load forecasting; electrical load; forecasting model;

    机译：Elman神经网络中期负荷预测电力负荷预测模型;

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