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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems Program Committee;International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems >Oil price volatility and oil-related events:An Internet concern study perspective
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Oil price volatility and oil-related events:An Internet concern study perspective

机译：石油价格波动与石油相关事件：互联网关注研究的角度

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摘要

Oil-related events have increased the uncertainty and complexity of the oil market.This paper investigates the effects of four types of oil-related events on world oil prices using an event study methodology and an AR-GARCH model.The Internet concern of these events,which is derived from search query volumes in Google,is introduced in the analytical frame to identify the magnitude and significance of the market respond to the oil-related events.The results indicate that world oil prices response to different oil-related events display obvious differentiation.The cumulative abnormal returns,which reflect the influence of the global financial crisis,tend to drop first and then reverse and rise,while the cumulative abnormal returns induced by other oil-related events present a stronger persistent effect.The impact of the global financial crisis on oil price returns is significantly negative,while the impact of the Libyan war and hurricanes is significantly positive.The reactions of oil price return changes to different OPEC production announcements are inconsistent.
机译：石油相关事件增加了石油市场的不确定性和复杂性。本文使用事件研究方法和AR-GARCH模型研究了四种类型的石油相关事件对世界石油​​价格的影响。在分析框架中引入了源于Google的搜索查询量，以识别市场对石油相关事件的反应的幅度和重要性。结果表明，世界石油价格对不同石油相关事件的反应明显反映全球金融危机影响的累积异常收益率先下降然后反转上升，而其他与石油有关的事件引起的累积异常收益表现出更强的持续作用。金融危机对石油价格收益的影响是显着的负面影响，而利比亚战争和飓风的影响则是显着的正面影响。对于不同的欧佩克生产通告，冰的返回更改不一致。

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