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首页> 外文会议>Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), 2012 Proceedings - Annual >Risk comparison of crew launch vehicle concepts
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Risk comparison of crew launch vehicle concepts

机译：乘员运载火箭概念的风险比较

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NASA is embarking on a new era of human spaceflight, one in which commercial service providers will sell astronaut transportation services to NASA. Thus NASA will have limited insight into the design and manufacturing processes of space transportation vehicles. In this new paradigm, setting appropriate safety requirements and goals, for the service providers to meet, and a standard process for evaluating the safety of commercial rides, will be of paramount importance to ensuring the safety of the astronauts. Good systems engineering practice emphasizes the importance of having valid and verifiable requirements. In the case of safety, carrying an unrealistically high, and thus unverifiable requirement can actually reduce the safety of vehicles under development because it can lead to focus on quantification of known failure modes rather than on a search for the unknowns, focus on process rather than experience, lead to a false sense of security, and a tendency to game the analysis to meet the requirement. A probability of loss of crew (LOC) requirement cannot be strictly verified, as there will be too few flights for statistics and probability forecasts are only “opinions” of the forecaster, well-educated opinions hopefully, but opinions nonetheless. ("Not differently is the aim of logic on the other hand. This cannot tell me if my opinions are right or wrong, that is nonsense, but only if they are coherent or if there is among them an intrinsic inconsistency. And the calculus of probabilities is only the logic of practical convictions, that are subjected to a more or less large degree of doubt"[1]). But the reliability and safety that were actually achieved by previous vehicles, with reasonable expectations of growth, inform the range of LOC probabilities that can be credibly achieved by new systems. This paper shows how this process can inform the development of rational requirements with the example of launch vehicle safety.
机译：NASA正在开启人类太空飞行的新时代，其中商业服务提供商将向NASA出售宇航员运输服务。因此，NASA对太空运输工具的设计和制造过程的了解有限。在这种新范式中，为服务提供商设定适当的安全要求和目标，以及评估商用乘车安全性的标准流程，对于确保宇航员的安全至关重要。良好的系统工程实践强调了拥有有效且可验证的需求的重要性。在安全方面，提出不切实际的高要求（因此无法验证）实际上会降低正在开发中的车辆的安全性，因为它可能导致专注于已知故障模式的量化而不是寻找未知因素，而是着眼于过程而不是过程经验，导致错误的安全感，并且倾向于进行分析以达到要求。无法严格验证船员流失概率（LOC）的要求，因为进行统计的航班太少了，而概率预测只是预测者的“意见”，希望有受过良好教育的观点，但尽管如此，这些观点还是可以的。 （“另一方面，逻辑的目的没有什么不同。这不能告诉我我的观点是对还是错，那是胡扯，但前提是它们是连贯的，或者它们之间存在内在的矛盾。概率只是实践信念的逻辑，受到或多或少的怀疑” [1]。但是，在合理增长的情况下，以前的车辆实际可以实现的可靠性和安全性可以告知新系统可以可靠地实现的LOC概率范围。本文以运载火箭的安全为例，说明该过程如何为合理需求的发展提供信息。

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