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首页> 外文会议>Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), 2012 Proceedings - Annual >An objective look at predictions — Ask questions, challenge answers
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An objective look at predictions — Ask questions, challenge answers

机译：客观看待预测-提出问题，挑战答案

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摘要

For more than 25 years, there has been a passionate dialog throughout the reliability engineering community as to the appropriate use of empirical and physics-based reliability models, and their associated benefits, limitations and risks. The mission of the Reliability Information Analysis Center (RIAC), as an Information Analysis Center (IAC) sponsored by the DoD Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC) over the last 40 years, has been to participate in this discussion to promote an objective understanding of the issues from both perspectives. The purpose of this paper is to document and re-emphasize the appropriate circumstances for each model and prediction type, and to identify those relevant questions that need to be asked to ensure that all prediction approaches are objectively considered, appropriately applied, and their results correctly interpreted and communicated.
机译：25年来，在可靠性工程界中一直存在着关于如何正确使用基于经验和基于物理的可靠性模型及其相关收益，局限性和风险的热烈对话。可靠性信息分析中心（RIAC）的任务，是由国防部国防技术信息中心（DTIC）赞助的信息分析中心（IAC），在过去40年中，一直参与该讨论，以促进对目标的理解。从两个角度来看问题。本文的目的是记录和重新强调每种模型和预测类型的适当情况，并确定需要提出的相关问题，以确保客观地考虑，正确应用所有预测方法以及正确地获得其结果解释和交流。

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