• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文会议>Remote sensing and modeling of ecosystems for sustainability V >Assessing the impact of future climate change on wheat production in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China based on GIS and crop model
【24h】

Assessing the impact of future climate change on wheat production in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China based on GIS and crop model

机译：基于GIS和作物模型评估未来气候变化对中国黄淮海平原小麦产量的影响。

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The climate is changing due to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases. If concentrations continue to increase, climate models project climate change in this century, with significant impacts on many human sectors, and particularly agriculture. Agriculture is a fundamental production sector for society, especially for large population countries such as China. Wheat is the second most important crop in China. Therefore, using climate change projections and crop models in order to understand the impacts of climate change on Chinese agriculture, especially on winter wheat, is extremely helpful to policy makers and international agencies. CERES-Wheat, a dynamic process crop growth model, will be calibrated and validated for current production at ten sites in the major winter wheat-growing region of China-Yellow Huai-Hai plain. Using two Global Climate Models, it will then be used to simulate production changes under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 climate change scenarios. Simulations will consider impacts for rainfed and irrigated winter wheat, with and without CO_2 fertilization. Simulation results indicated the possibility of significant impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in this region, with marked differences between rainfed and irrigated production. In conclusion, this exercise successfully tested the applicability of standard climate change impact assessment methodology to an important production region of China.
机译：由于温室气体浓度较高，气候正在发生变化。如果浓度继续增加，气候模式将预测本世纪的气候变化，这将对许多人类部门，特别是农业产生重大影响。农业是社会的基本生产部门，特别是对于中国这样的人口大国而言。小麦是中国第二重要的农作物。因此，使用气候变化预测和作物模型来了解气候变化对中国农业尤其是冬小麦的影响，对政策制定者和国际机构非常有帮助。 CERES-Wheat，一种动态的过程性作物生长模型，将在中国主要的小麦产区-淮海平原的十个地点进行校准和验证，以用于当前产量。然后使用两个全球气候模型，将其用于模拟IPCC SRES A2和B2气候变化情景下的生产变化。模拟将考虑采用和不采用CO_2施肥对雨养和灌溉冬小麦的影响。模拟结果表明，气候变化对该地区冬小麦生产可能产生重大影响，雨养和灌溉生产之间存在明显差异。总而言之，本次活动成功地测试了标准气候变化影响评估方法论在中国重要生产地区的适用性。

著录项

  • 来源
  • 会议地点 San Diego CA(US)
  • 作者

    Zhan Tian; Jun Shi; Zhiqiang Gao; Francesco N. Tubiello;

  • 作者单位

    ShangHai Climate Center, 166 Pu Xi Road, Shanghai, P. R. China 200030;

    ShangHai Climate Center, 166 Pu Xi Road, Shanghai, P. R. China 200030;

    Institute of Geographical Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences 11A Datun Road Anwai Beijing, P. R. China 100101 Key Laboratory of Geo-information Science of the Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China;

    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis;

  • 会议组织
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 遥感技术;
  • 关键词

    CERES model; SRES scenario; climate change; GCM;

    机译：CERES模型； SRES情景；气候变化； GCM;

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号