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Fuzzy Consensus Qualitative Risk Analysis as a framework for the evaluation of risk events in real estate development projects

机译：模糊共识定性风险分析作为房地产开发项目风险事件评估的框架

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This paper presents a Fuzzy Consensus Qualitative Risk Analysis framework to identify and prioritize risks encountered in real estate projects, which is applied to developing countries. The framework incorporates the consensus and quality of experts in the process of evaluating risk events and is composed of (1) a Fuzzy Expert System (FES)to determine qualification of experts;(2) Fuzzy Similarity Aggregation Algorithms to aggregate experts' opinions; and (3) a three-dimensional prioritization approach to rank the risks, qualitatively. Risks are identified through a literature review and interviews with experts who rank the risks in terms of their probability of occurrence, impact and level of detection; each is described using five linguistic terms that are defined by membership functions (MFs) on a 5-point rating scale. The FES determines an importance weight factor for each expert, based on a set of predetermined qualification attributes. Experts' opinions are aggregated in a linguistic framework, based on the proximity of their opinions on the scale to ensure that their aggregated decision is a result of common agreement. The importance weight factor is combined with the consensus weight factor of each expert in the aggregation process using a scalar modifier and the Euclidean Distance Measure Function is used to determine the linguistic criticality of every risk event. A three-dimensional prioritization approach applies a set of ranking rules to every risk that enables experts to rank and visualize the priority of the risks in a three-dimensional space. The framework contributes to the Real estate industry by solving a major problemfor project teams in developing countries to qualitatively evaluate risks in a fully supported linguistic framework, using fuzzy logic,whichaddresses thevaguenessandimprecisionthatexistinthe decision-making process.
机译：本文提出了一种模糊共识定性风险分析框架，以识别并确定房地产项目中遇到的风险的优先级，该框架适用于发展中国家。该框架在评估风险事件的过程中融合了专家的共识和素质，包括以下内容：（1）确定专家资格的模糊专家系统（FES）；（2）汇总专家意见的模糊相似度汇总算法； （3）三维优先排序方法，以定性对风险进行排名。通过文献综述和与专家的访谈来识别风险，专家根据风险的发生概率，影响和检测水平对风险进行排名；每一个都使用5个语言术语进行描述，这些术语由隶属函数（MF）在5分制的等级量表上定义。 FES基于一组预定的资格属性为每个专家确定重要权重因子。专家的意见在语言框架内汇总，基于其意见在范围上的接近程度，以确保他们的汇总决策是共同协议的结果。使用标量修饰符将重要性权重因子与聚集过程中每个专家的共识权重因子相结合，并且使用欧氏距离度量功能来确定每个风险事件的语言重要性。三维优先级排序方法将一组排名规则应用于每个风险，使专家能够在三维空间中对风险的优先级进行排名和可视化。该框架通过解决发展中国家的项目团队使用模糊逻辑在完全支持的语言框架中定性评估风险的主要问题，从而为房地产行业做出了贡献，解决了决策过程中存在的模糊性和不精确性。

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