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On the application to risk and decison analysis of TRIZ, the russian theory of inventive problem-solving

机译:俄罗斯发明问题解决理论在TRIZ风险和决策分析中的应用

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Traditional decision theory deals with the problem of selecting the best option out of a given predetermined set of options. It has noting to say about where those options come from. That is the "creative" part of the problem. The role of risk otucomes of each decision option. As part of that process, risk analysis must gather all the information and evidence relevant to those outcomes. Risk analysis may thus be considered the "information-gathering" option, or the "inner loop" of a decision analysis. The Russian theory TRIZ can be thought of as an "option-generating" or "outer loop" of a decision process. In this sense, TRIZ completes the decision theory model in an important way. We note that just one good idea in the outer loop of a decision problem can make unnecessary a great deal of tedious and expendsive work in the inner loop. The Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository is cited as an example.
机译:传统的决策理论处理从给定的预定选项集中选择最佳选项的问题。它没有提到这些选项的来源。那是问题的“创造性”部分。每个决策选项的风险对象的作用。作为该过程的一部分,风险分析必须收集与这些结果相关的所有信息和证据。因此,可以将风险分析视为决策分析的“信息收集”选项或“内部循环”。俄国理论TRIZ可以被认为是决策过程的“产生选项”或“外循环”。从这个意义上讲,TRIZ以一种重要的方式完善了决策理论模型。我们注意到,决策问题的外循环中只有一个好主意可以使内循环中的许多繁琐而费力的工作变得不必要。以尤卡山核废料处置库为例。

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