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首页> 外文会议>Safety and security engineering IV >Spatially modeled high detail population and climate prospects for a European transect: an outlook to future patterns of vulnerability
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Spatially modeled high detail population and climate prospects for a European transect: an outlook to future patterns of vulnerability

机译：对欧洲样带进行空间建模的高细节人口和气候前景：对未来脆弱性模式的展望

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Population exposure mapping forms an important part and is usually considered the starting point for the assessment of the social dimension of vulnerability. Integration of social structure would then further differentiate situation-specific vulnerability patterns on a local scale. Census data available in inhomogeneous spatial reference units are still considered the standard information input for assessing potentially affected people, e.g. in case of an emergency. There is a strong demand on population data that are independent from administrative areas. Raster representations meet this demand but are not yet available for all European countries. In this paper we will present an approach of spatial disaggregation of population data for a European transect referring to current population statistics and anticipated future prospects. A recently published new data set providing the degree of soil sealing for the EU27+ countries is applied as basic proxy for population density in the spatial disaggregation model. In order to assess future patterns of climate change related vulnerability, results of a European regional climate model are considered for projecting the situation in the year 2030. Various variables such as 'heat wave frequency' and 'number of hot nights' will be accounted for in that regard featuring conditions regarded especially strenuous for elderly or physically weak persons. Integrated analysis of the population and climate prospects data enables identification of hot spots in the examined European transect, i.e. regions of high population density and particularly demanding projected climatic patterns. In the context of climate impact mitigation as well as for the assessment and management of future risks and emergencies, integrated and consistent spatial analyses on European scale are of utmost importance for decision making processes as well as for risk communication and future safety and security considerations.
机译：人口暴露测绘是重要的组成部分，通常被认为是评估脆弱性的社会层面的起点。然后，社会结构的整合将进一步在局部范围内区分针对特定情况的脆弱性模式。非均质空间参考单位中可用的人口普查数据仍被认为是评估潜在受影响人群的标准信息输入，例如：在紧急情况下。对独立于行政区域的人口数据有强烈的需求。栅格制图表达可以满足此需求，但尚未在所有欧洲国家/地区提供。在本文中，我们将参考当前人口统计数据和预期的未来前景，提出一种针对欧洲样带的人口数据空间分解方法。最近发布的提供欧盟27+国家土壤封闭程度的新数据集被用作空间分解模型中人口密度的基本替代指标。为了评估与气候变化相关的脆弱性的未来模式，考虑了欧洲区域气候模型的结果以预测2030年的情况。将考虑各种变量，例如“热浪频率”和“热夜数”在这方面，对老年人或身体虚弱的人而言，特别令人苦恼的条件。通过对人口和气候前景数据进行综合分析，可以确定所检查的欧洲样带中的热点，即人口密度高的地区，以及特别苛刻的预计气候模式。在减轻气候影响以及评估和管理未来风险和紧急情况的背景下，在欧洲范围内进行整合的，一致的空间分析对于决策过程以及风险沟通以及未来的安全与保障考虑至关重要。

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