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Probabilistic and fuzzy fault-tree analyses for modelling cave-in accidents

机译：基于概率和模糊故障树的塌方事故建模

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摘要

Construction injury accidents result from different causes. Risk evaluation for cave-ins using traditional fault-tree analysis can be difficult, especially since the variables resulting in cave-ins are unique; in addition, historical data, when available, is often incomplete. In construction, assessment of risk is based on linguistic terms using subjective judgment of linguistic values such as severe, very likely, etc. Such linguistic terms are best modeled using fuzzy set theory. The traditional FTA method has been widely used to calculate the probability of the top undesired event, which is based on historical data of the occurrence and the severity of the basic events. FTA implementation into construction projects needs to be modified since assessment of contributing events to cave-in accidents is based on managerial experience using experiential subjective expressions. This paper introduces a fuzzy triangular model to assess risks associated with excavation work in advance and helps management prepare solutions in advance.
机译：工伤事故的起因不同。使用传统的故障树分析对塌陷进行风险评估可能很困难，尤其是因为导致塌陷的变量是唯一的；此外，历史数据（如果可用）通常是不完整的。在构建中，风险评估是基于语言术语，使用诸如严重，极可能等语言值的主观判断。此类语言术语最好使用模糊集理论建模。传统的FTA方法已被广泛用于基于基本事件的发生和严重程度的历史数据来计算最不希望发生的事件的概率。由于对塌方事故造成事件的评估是基于使用经验主观表达的管理经验，因此需要修改在建筑项目中自贸区的实施方式。本文介绍了一种模糊三角模型，用于提前评估与开挖工作相关的风险，并帮助管理层提前准备解决方案。

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