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THE SMALL SAMPLE UNCERTAINTY ASPECT IN RELATION TO BULLWHIP EFFECT MEASUREMENT

机译：与布尔效应测量有关的小样本不确定性方面

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摘要

The bullwhip effect as a concept has been known for almost half a century starting with the Forrester effect. The bullwhip effect is observed in many supply chains, and it is generally accepted as a potential malice. Despite of this fact, the bullwhip effect still seems to be first and foremost a conceptual phenomenon. This paper intends primarily to investigate why this might be so and thereby investigate the various aspects, possibilities and obstacles that must be taken into account, when considering the potential practical use and measure of the bullwhip effect in order to actually get the supply chain under control. This paper will put special emphasis on the unavoidable small-sample uncertainty aspects relating to the measurement or estimation of the bullwhip effect.
机译：从Forrester效应开始，牛鞭效应作为一个概念已经存在了近半个世纪。在许多供应链中都观察到了牛鞭效应，并且通常认为牛鞭效应是潜在的恶意。尽管有这个事实，牛鞭效应似乎仍然是首要的概念现象。本文的主要目的是研究为什么会这样，从而研究在考虑牛鞭效应的潜在实际用途和措施以真正控制供应链时必须考虑的各个方面，可能性和障碍。 。本文将特别强调与牛鞭效应的测量或估计有关的不可避免的小样本不确定性方面。

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