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PATH CLASSIFICATION AND REMAINING LIFE ESTIMATION FOR SYSTEMS HAVING COMPLEX MODES OF FAILURE

机译：具有复杂故障模式的系统的路径分类和剩余寿命估计

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摘要

Prognostic health management for complex systems is receiving increasing attention, with an emphasis on techniques for remaining useful life estimation. A novel Path Classification and Estimation (PACE) technique is described for estimating remaining useful life for systems and components experiencing complex and possibly competing failure modes. The remaining useful life of a sample of aging aircraft turbofan engines is predicted by classifying each engine's degradation path in reference to degradation path models calibrated with actual run-to-failure data for similar engines. The degradation path model inputs are derived from pattern recognition models of the normal behavior for these engines. Deviations between the expected signal values and the model estimated values are evaluated to determine when a monitored engine is degrading excessively and to classify the engine's degradation path in reference to similar end-of-life paths. Remaining useful life is estimated based on the path classification. The results illustrate the evolution of the remaining life estimate from the point where the degradation trend is first detected to the point of actual failure for a sample of engines. The results show that the PACE technique is a fast, accurate, and online capable method providing data-driven remaining useful life estimation for complex systems having multiple failure modes that might occur individually or in combination.
机译：复杂系统的预后健康管理受到越来越多的关注，重点是用于保持有用寿命估计的技术。描述了一种新颖的路径分类和估计（PACE）技术，用于估计经历复杂甚至可能竞争的故障模式的系统和组件的剩余使用寿命。通过参考使用类似发动机的实际运行到故障数据校准的退化路径模型对每个发动机的退化路径进行分类，可以预测飞机涡轮风扇发动机的老化样本的剩余使用寿命。退化路径模型输入是从这些引擎的正常行为的模式识别模型得出的。评估预期信号值与模型估计值之间的偏差，以确定受监视的发动机何时过度降级，并参考相似的寿命终止路径对发动机的降级路径进行分类。根据路径分类估算剩余使用寿命。结果说明了剩余寿命估算值从首次发现退化趋势的点到发动机样本实际故障点的演变。结果表明，PACE技术是一种快速，准确且在线的方法，可为具有多个故障模式的复杂系统提供数据驱动的剩余使用寿命估算，这些故障模式可能会单独出现或组合出现。

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