RELIABILITY ASSESSEMENT AND LIFE PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDE USING BAYESIAN APPROACH

机译：贝叶斯方法的滑坡可靠性评估和寿命预测

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Based on review of current research of time-dependent reliability and analysis of the characteristics of landslide hazards, an idea that the bayes approach can combine natural information and epistemic information to reduce knowledge-based epistemic uncertainties.Thus, the Bayesian approach can serve as a powerful tool for information updating and provides a new solution for time-dependent reliability analysis and for investigating potential landslides. Then a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian approach is applied to spatially evaluate the aging/life of landslides. The application to the assessment and prediction of landslide life result shows that the renewal of information can be capable of capturing the deteriorating characteristics of slopes effectively and make reliability estimate of a landslide more accurate and realistic.

机译：基于当前对时变可靠性的研究综述以及滑坡灾害特征的分析，贝叶斯方法可以将自然信息和认知信息相结合以减少基于知识的认知不确定性。强大的信息更新工具，为基于时间的可靠性分析和调查潜在滑坡提供了新的解决方案。然后使用贝叶斯方法进行概率分析，以在空间上评估滑坡的老化/寿命。通过对滑坡寿命结果评估和预测的应用表明，信息更新能够有效地捕捉滑坡的恶化特征，使滑坡的可靠度估算更加准确，现实。

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来源
《Sino-Japan Geotechnical Symposium November; 20071104-07; Chongqing(CN)》|2007年|P.532-538|共7页
会议地点 Chongqing(CN)
作者
QIANGHUI SONG; DONGSHENG LIU; JIE ZHANG;
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作者单位

Dept. of Architecture Civil Engineering, LEU of PLA, Chongqing, 400041, China;

Chongqing Institute of Geology Mineral Resources Survey, Chongqing, 400039, China;

The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China;

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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类土力学、地基基础工程;
关键词
Landslide; Deterioration; Time-Dependent; Life Prediction; Bayesian Approach;

机译：滑坡；恶化；时变；寿命预测；贝叶斯方法;

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RELIABILITY ASSESSEMENT AND LIFE PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDE USING BAYESIAN APPROACH

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